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Derek Chang, Saurabh Amin, and Kerry Emanuel

1. Introduction Hurricanes are a major natural hazard to built infrastructure such as buildings, transportation systems, and electric power networks ( Campbell and Lowry 2012 ; Ouyang 2014 ) and often lead to large socioeconomic losses. A standardized risk assessment procedure is needed to assess the vulnerability of infrastructure systems to hurricanes. Such a procedure becomes especially important in light of projected changes in the frequency of high-intensity hurricanes ( Bender et al

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Jennifer Nakamura, Upmanu Lall, Yochanan Kushnir, Patrick A. Harr, and Kyra McCreery

Atlantic TC activity (occurrence, landfall rates, precipitation) and their sensitivity to changes in baseline climate conditions, as part of the evolution of the global climate. However, these models tend to be of low resolution and are expensive to run repeatedly as part of achieving a probabilistic risk assessment ( Vitart et al. 1997 ; Camargo et al. 2005 ). Climate-conditioned statistical models have thus been proposed to predict the properties of an upcoming hurricane season ( Elsner and Jagger

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Chandra Rupa Rajulapati, Simon Michael Papalexiou, Martyn P. Clark, Saman Razavi, Guoqiang Tang, and John W. Pomeroy

events, and quantifies the likelihood of extremes to occur. More frequent and larger extremes with respect to the average precipitation occur when a heavy tail is observed in a particular region. Therefore, assessment of a tail’s heaviness is useful to understand the likelihood of extremes and thus guide risk management strategies. The tail function F ¯ X ⁡ ( x ) of random variable X is the complimentary cumulative distribution function of X . Several classifications of tail functions exist, yet

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Brian C. Zachry, William J. Booth, Jamie R. Rhome, and Tarah M. Sharon

inundation maps. This paper presents the methodology used to create high-resolution U.S. storm surge inundation maps using existing storm surge products created at the NHC, and provides a quantitative assessment of the societal impacts caused by storm surge flooding from category 1–5 hurricanes based on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS). The information, data, statistics, and storm surge risk maps presented in this paper are highly desired and invaluable to emergency managers, state and

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Catherine Champagne, Andrew Davidson, Patrick Cherneski, Jessika L’Heureux, and Trevor Hadwen

1. Introduction Agricultural risk assessment is a key tool for determining potential and actual losses in food production that result from climatic extremes such as deficits and excesses of moisture in the soil and at the surface. Soil moisture is a key determinant of crop production, impacting field accessibility for seeding, harvest, and field management; sustaining productive crop growth; and often determining vulnerability of crops to disease and pests. Characterizing soil moisture and soil

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Gabrielle Roesch-McNally, Michael Chang, Meghan Dalton, Scott Lowe, Charlie Luce, Christine May, Gary Morishima, Philip Mote, Alexander “Sascha” Petersen, and Emily York

1. Introduction The Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) includes Volume I, the Climate Science Special Report ( Wuebbles et al. 2017 ), and Volume II, Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States ( Reidmiller et al. 2018 ). The Global Change Research Act of 1990 requires that the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) deliver a National Climate Assessment to Congress and the U.S. president every 4 years. This paper reflects on the development of the NCA4 Volume II

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Simon Albert, Kirsten Abernethy, Badin Gibbes, Alistair Grinham, Nixon Tooler, and Shankar Aswani

1. Introduction The risk of coastal inundation from climate change associated sea level rise is one of the more pressing concerns for coastal communities globally. This threat is of particular concern for communities in the less developed and small island states such as those in the Pacific, who are considered the most vulnerable to sea level rise ( Dasgupta et al. 2009 ; McClanahan and Cinner 2012 ). While variation is expected, the western Pacific region is likely to experience 0.1–0.9 m of

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Tianyi Zhang, Xiaomao Lin, Danny H. Rogers, and Freddie R. Lamm

1. Introduction Based on the recent National Climate Assessment ( Georgakakos et al. 2014 ), seasonal drought is expected to intensify in most U.S. regions, and long-term drought will occur in large areas of the southwest, southern Great Plains, and southeast. This drying trend may pose a substantial threat to the U.S. food security because nearly two-thirds of the country’s freshwater diversions are used for agricultural irrigation ( Kenny et al. 2009 ). Irrigation has been effectively

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Juergen Grieser and Marc Hill

1. Introduction Hail is a risk to human life and property. The damage it causes depends on the size, mass density, and hardness of hailstones hitting the object ( Brown et al. 2015 ). Objects get damaged if they are hit by hailstones larger than some object-specific threshold. For cars and property this threshold is often assumed to be a hailstone diameter of 2 cm (see, e.g., GdV 2014) . This paper introduces a model to estimate how many hailstones larger than a given threshold hit an object

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Timothy Hall and Michael K. Tippett

.1600-0870.2007.00240.x . 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00240.x Hall , T. M. , and S. Jewson , 2008 : Comparison of local and basinwide methods for risk assessment of tropical cyclone landfall . J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol. , 47 , 361 – 367 , doi: 10.1175/2007JAMC1720.1 . 10.1175/2007JAMC1720.1 Hall , T. M. , and E. Yonekura , 2013 : North American tropical cyclone landfall and SST: A statistical model study . J. Climate , 26 , 8422 – 8439 , doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00756.1 . 10.1175/JCLI

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