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Annalisa Cherchi, Silvio Gualdi, Swadhin Behera, Jing Jia Luo, Sebastien Masson, Toshio Yamagata, and Antonio Navarra

Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are negatively correlated. Moreover, evidence of a decadal variability affecting this relationship has been found, as its amplitude has decreased during recent decades ( Kumar et al. 1999 ). Lau and Nath (2000) provided a mechanism, also known as the atmospheric bridge, to explain the influence of the tropical Pacific Ocean on the monsoon by means of a suppression of convection over the western part of the Walker circulation in correspondence of a warm ENSO event

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Gabriel A. Vecchi and Matthew J. Harrison

Schiller 2007 ; Ballabrera-Poy et al. 2007 ; T. Lee 2005, personal communication), prior to the full deployment of the observing system. This paper describes the methods and results of one such OSSE. The Indian Ocean region exhibits large-scale atmospheric and oceanic variability on a variety of time scales, including subseasonal, seasonal, and interannual; there have also been pronounced changes to Indian Ocean oceanic conditions over recent decades (e.g., Boyer et al. 2005 ; Levitus et al. 2005

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R. J. Murray, Nathaniel L. Bindoff, and C. J. C. Reason

similar to those diagnosed from an integration with anthropogenically caused increasing levels of greenhouse gases than from one in which the atmospheric components remained constant. They found SAMW in the Indian Ocean to be a particularly sensitive indicator of possible anthropogenic change because of its homogeneity in potential density and high volume production [estimated to be 19.8 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 10 6 m 3 s −1 ) for the range σ θ = 26.52–26.80 kg m –3 by Marsh et al. (2000) ]. SAMW forms in a

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