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David J. Bodine and Kristen L. Rasmussen

estimates were further refined in Corfidi (2003) to incorporate the effects of the cold pool. In some cases, the MCS may propagate in the direction of new convection initiation and merge with the new convection, leading to enhanced forward propagation through discrete propagation (e.g., Zipser 1977 ; Crook and Moncrieff 1988 ; Fovell et al. 2006 ). Fovell et al. (2006) explored discrete propagation using a numerical model and found that new convection was initiated by gravity waves ahead of the

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Samuel K. Degelia, Xuguang Wang, and David J. Stensrud

CI events, or if the observation impacts would be as large when the mechanisms are not well captured. As nocturnal convection can be initiated by many other features such as atmospheric bores or internal gravity waves, we plan to conduct a systematic evaluation of the impact of assimilating PECAN field observations on forecasts of nocturnal CI. To facilitate this work, a statistical method is also being developed to systematically quantify timing, location, and orientation errors for CI. By

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Dylan W. Reif and Howard B. Bluestein

major forecasting problems ( Davis et al. 2003 ; Trier et al. 2006 ; Surcel et al. 2010 ). One reason is that mesoscale features such as outflow boundaries and horizontal convective rolls (HCRs) are poorly sampled and are poorly resolved in many operational models ( Trier et al. 2014 ). Another complication is that the processes that lead to CI during the day are not as effective at generating convection at night. Features such as the LLJ and gravity waves (including atmospheric bores) are more

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