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Morten Køltzow, Barbara Casati, Eric Bazile, Thomas Haiden, and Teresa Valkonen

forecast accuracy by the use of optimized physics for the targeted area and finer horizontal and vertical resolution ( Jung et al. 2016 ). However, operational convection permitting resolution models have just recently started to appear for the Arctic domain. Müller et al. (2017) and Yang et al. (2018) describe added value from operational high-resolution HIRLAM–ALADIN Research on Mesoscale Operational NWP in Euromed (HARMONIE)–Applications of Research to Operations at Mesoscale (AROME) runs in the

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Craig S. Schwartz, Glen S. Romine, Morris L. Weisman, Ryan A. Sobash, Kathryn R. Fossell, Kevin W. Manning, and Stanley B. Trier

storm-scale EnKF DA of radar observations for individual cases [e.g., Snyder and Zhang 2003 ; Zhang et al. 2004 ; Dowell at al. 2004 ; Putnam et al. (2014) , and references therein], only more recently have mesoscale EnKF DA systems been employed to initialize convection-allowing ensemble forecasts over meso- α - to synoptic-scale regions. For example, several case studies (e.g., Jones and Stensrud 2012 ; Melhauser and Zhang 2012 ; Jones et al. 2013 , 2015 ; Schumacher and Clark 2014 ) and

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Lisa S. Alexander, David M. L. Sills, and Peter A. Taylor

products when detecting/analyzing convective development along mesoscale boundaries. In other words, cell initiations are often first and better detected using data above the CAPPI 1-km level. Finally, it is important that boundary information be used to detect and nowcast the initiation of convective storms. A semiobjective, manual approach was used in this study for boundary identification, though it is recognized that this is too labor intensive for operational use by forecasters. High

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Shengjun Zhang, Tim Li, Xuyang Ge, Melinda Peng, and Ning Pan

code. Thus, even though the observed TC structure is given, there is an observation error associated with the observed data. We did include some level of reasonable observation noise. b. Application of the TCDI–3DVAR scheme to an operational forecast system The aforementioned dynamic initialization scheme has been implemented in the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC; Hendricks et al. 2011 ). Figure 11 is a flowchart describing how the TCDI

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Donna F. Tucker and Kristine S. Zentmire

well. Acknowledgments We are grateful to Dr. Edward Tollerud of the Forecast Systems Laboratory for providing the dataset with MCC times and locations. REFERENCES Anderson, C. J., and R. W. Arritt, 1998: Mesoscale convective complexes and persistent elongated convective systems over the United States during 1992 and 1993. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 578–599. 10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<0578:MCCAPE>2.0.CO;2 Augustine, J. A., and K. W. Howard, 1988: Mesoscale convective complexes over the United States

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Haidao Lin, Stephen S. Weygandt, Agnes H. N. Lim, Ming Hu, John M. Brown, and Stanley G. Benjamin

framework mimicking that of the operational North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM), McCarty et al. (2009) showed at 48 h a forecast improvement in geopotential height at 500 hPa, defined as the time difference in hours at which the forecasts fall below two points of equal anomaly correction, is 2.3 h. They also showed improvement of 8% and 7% in equitable threat and bias scores of precipitation forecasts of 25 mm (6 h) −1 . Using a similar framework, Lim et al. (2014) showed improvement in

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Morris A. Bender, Timothy P. Marchok, Charles R. Sampson, John A. Knaff, and Matthew J. Morin

of this paper. In the few studies that exist in the literature, the quality of the wind radii estimates provided in the TC vitals has been found to have an impact on TC-focused NWP forecasts. For example, Kunii (2015) found that the inclusion of wind radii data helped improve TC track forecasts in the Japan Meteorological Agency’s (JMA) operational mesoscale model. Also, Marchok et al. (2012) showed that modifying the observed 34- and 50-kt wind radii used to initialize the GFDL hurricane

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David R. Novak, Jeff S. Waldstreicher, Daniel Keyser, and Lance F. Bosart

frontogenesis northwest of the surface cyclone ( Fig. 1b ). These results are also consistent with the case study work of Martin (1998a , b ), Banacos (2003) , and Moore et al. (2005) , who have documented similar synoptic and mesoscale flow evolutions in case studies of mesoscale banding in the central and eastern United States. These emerging conceptual models of the synoptic and mesoscale flow environments conducive to band formation are providing forecasters with an awareness of the potential for

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Fuqing Zhang, Yonghui Weng, Ying-Hwa Kuo, Jeffery S. Whitaker, and Baoguo Xie

the Advanced Research version (ARW) of the next-generation mesoscale Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF) currently being developed and employed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research ( Skamarock et al. 2005 ). Two model domains coupled through two-way nesting are employed; the fine (coarse) domain has a horizontal grid spacing of 4.5 (13.5) km covering areas of 2700 × 2400 (8100 × 7200) km 2 . The model has 35 vertical levels with physics configurations that are the same as those

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Kosuke Ito, Tohru Kuroda, Kazuo Saito, and Akiyoshi Wada

. 2010 , 2013 ), the cases are still limited to ascertaining the effects of storm-induced sea surface cooling on TC intensity forecast skill in the vicinity of Japan. In this study, we conduct a large number of 3-day forecast experiments around Japan in order to obtain a reliable TC intensity forecast assessment. This is achieved by running a JMA nonhydrostatic atmospheric mesoscale model (AMSM) that is similar to an operational regional model and an atmosphere–ocean coupled mesoscale model (CMSM

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