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Sean Stelten and William A. Gallus Jr.

type 2 case failed to produce the convection. Perhaps in the case of type 2 events, smaller-scale features or impulses moving through the LLJ are causing the initiation, rather than the broader LLJ itself. If these small-scale features, whether they be gravity waves or moisture fluctuations within the jet, are relatively hard to predict, that could explain why some type 2 events are predicted relatively well while other events are completely missed by the model forecasts. Overall, all four types

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David B. Parsons, Kevin R. Haghi, Kelton T. Halbert, Blake Elmer, and Junhong Wang

. Part II: Organization and instability mechanisms . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 118 , 1123 – 1144 , https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1990)118<1123:TAFSIE>2.0.CO;2 . 10.1175/1520-0493(1990)118<1123:TAFSIE>2.0.CO;2 Crook , N. A. , 1986 : The effect of ambient stratification and moisture on the motion of atmospheric undular bores . J. Atmos. Sci. , 43 , 171 – 181 , https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1986)043<0171:TEOASA>2.0.CO;2 . 10.1175/1520-0469(1986)043<0171:TEOASA>2.0.CO;2 Crook , N. A. , R. E

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Aaron Johnson, Xuguang Wang, Kevin R. Haghi, and David B. Parsons

profiler analysis of the effects of a bore and a solitary wave on the stability of the nocturnal boundary layer . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 139 , 211 – 223 , https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3376.1 . 10.1175/2010MWR3376.1 Crook , N. A. , 1986 : The effect of ambient stratification and moisture on the motion of atmospheric undular bores . J. Atmos. Sci. , 43 , 171 – 181 , https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1986)043<0171:TEOASA>2.0.CO;2 . 10.1175/1520-0469(1986)043<0171:TEOASA>2.0.CO;2 Crook , N. A

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David M. Loveless, Timothy J. Wagner, David D. Turner, Steven A. Ackerman, and Wayne F. Feltz

. 10.1175/1520-0434(2002)017<0445:MHTRCS>2.0.CO;2 Feltz , W. F. , W. L. Smith , H. B. Howell , R. O. Knuteson , H. Woolf , and H. E. Revercomb , 2003 : Near-continuous profiling of temperature, moisture, and atmospheric stability using the Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI) . J. Appl. Meteor. , 42 , 584 – 597 , https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(2003)042<0584:NPOTMA>2.0.CO;2 . 10.1175/1520-0450(2003)042<0584:NPOTMA>2.0.CO;2 French , A. J. , and M. D. Parker

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Shushi Zhang, David B. Parsons, and Yuan Wang

of soil moisture and convectively generated waves on the initiation of a West African mesoscale convective system . Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , 139 , 1712 – 1730 , https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2062 . 10.1002/qj.2062 Blake , B. T. , D. B. Parsons , K. R. Haghi , and S. G. Castleberry , 2017 : The structure, evolution, and dynamics of a nocturnal convective system simulated using the WRF-ARW Model . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 145 , 3179 – 3201 , https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16

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Matthew D. Parker, Brett S. Borchardt, Rachel L. Miller, and Conrad L. Ziegler

bores and gravity waves in the initiation and maintenance of nocturnal convection over the southern great plains . J. Atmos. Sci. , 76 , 43 – 68 , https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-17-0172.1 . 10.1175/JAS-D-17-0172.1 Peters , J. M. , E. R. Nielsen , M. D. Parker , S. M. Hitchcock , and R. S. Schumacher , 2017 : The impact of low-level moisture errors on model forecasts of an MCS observed during PECAN . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 145 , 3599 – 3624 , https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16

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