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Jose-Henrique G. M. Alves, Scott Stripling, Arun Chawla, Hendrik Tolman, and Andre van der Westhuysen

observed in the New York Harbor, that author concludes that 93% of the total observed surge was caused by the convergence of high waves at the harbor entrance. Operational wave model guidance provided by the National Weather Service (NWS), using numerical model predictions made at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), gave decision makers accurate information that helped mitigate the severity of this historical event. Early reports issued by NOAA evaluating forecasts and

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R. K. Hauser and A. J. Miller

M,~-1978 R. K. HAUSER AND A. J. MILLER 607A Study of the Atmospheric Eneretics of a Six-Layer Operational Forecast Model R. K. HAUSERCalifornia State University, Chico 95929 A. J. M~LzwRNOAA, National Meteorological Center, Washington, D. C. 20233(Manuscript received 27 June 1977, in final form 23 December 1977)ABSTRACT Routine estimates of certain atmospheric energetics

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Thomas W. Bettge and David P. Baumhefner

NOVEMBER 1984THOMAS W. BETTGE AND DAVID P. BAUMHEFNER2317Total and Planetary-Scale Systematic Errors in RecentNMC Operational Model ForecastsTHOMAS W. BETTGE AND DAVID P. BAUMHEFNERNational Center for Atmospheric Research,' Boulder, CO 80307(Manuscript received 20 March 1984, in final form 15 July 1984)ABSTRACTThe total and systematic errors in the 500 mb geopotential height forecasts from the NMC grid-point andspectral operation~l models are compared and contrasted for two recent winters. The

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Dennis G. Baker

VOL. I10, NO. 3 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW MARCH 1982Synoptic-Scale and Mesoscale Contributions to Objective Operational Maximum Minimum Temperature Forecast Errors DENNIS G. BAKERDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Michigan. Ann Arbor 48109(Manuscript received 13 July 1981, in final form 30 December 1981 ) ABSTRACT Root-mean-square errors of the

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Timothy F. Hogan and Thomas E. Rosmond

1786 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME II9The Description of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System's Spectral Forecast Model TIMOTHY F. HOGAN AND THOMAS E. ROSMOND NOARL. Atmospheric Directorate, Monterey. California(Manuscript received 26 February 1990, in final form 14 February 1991) We present a description of the development of the spectral forecast components of the Navy OperationalGlobal

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Jerome P. Charba

268 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUM-10?Two to Six Hour Severe Local Storm Probabilities: An Operational Forecasting System JEROME P. CHARBATechniques Development Laboratory, National Weather Service, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD 20910 (Manuscript received 20 October 1978, in final form I1 December 1978)ABSTRACT The National Weather Service has developed an operational

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Vijay Tallapragada, Chanh Kieu, Young Kwon, Samuel Trahan, Qingfu Liu, Zhan Zhang, and In-Hyuk Kwon

1. Introduction Evaluating performance of tropical cyclone (TC) forecast models is a challenging problem. Traditionally, TC model performance is often examined from a common pointlike perspective in which a single set of the forecasted values pertaining to TCs including the maximum 10-m wind (VMAX), the minimum sea level pressure (PMIN), and the location of TC centers are compared against observations provided by the operational hurricane forecast centers in the form of best track data. These

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Noel E. Davidson, Yi Xiao, Yimin Ma, Harry C. Weber, Xudong Sun, Lawrie J. Rikus, Jeff D. Kepert, Peter X. Steinle, Gary S. Dietachmayer, Charlie C. F. Lok, James Fraser, Joan Fernon, and Hakeem Shaik

vortex initialization scheme capable of initializing the primary and secondary circulations of TCs; and (v) a numerical forecast model with advanced numerics and sophisticated physical parameterizations. To achieve these goals, the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS; Puri et al. 2010 , 2013 ) has been configured for operational and research applications on tropical cyclones. ACCESS is an implementation at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology of the full Met Office

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G. J. Boer

JUNE 1984 G.J. BOER 1183A Spectral Analysis of Predictability and Error in an Operational Forecast System G. J. BOERCanadian Climate Centre, Downsview, Ontario M3H 5T4 Canada(Manuscript received 17 June 1983, in final form 16 March 1984) ABSTRACT A spectral analysis of error at 24, 48 and 72 hours in an operational forecast system is carried out for awinter and a summer month

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Eric Wattrelot, Olivier Caumont, and Jean-François Mahfouf

6-h forecast range) have been found after the introduction of reflectivity data in the AROME system (not shown). On 24 November 2010, the improved use of the “nonprecipitating” signal has been also introduced. All these positive results validate the concept of using a two-step methodology to operationally assimilate radar reflectivities. However, the observation error statistics were estimated a priori at the beginning of the assimilation processing (the “true state” of the atmosphere is a

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