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Stephen Cusack and Alberto Arribas

assessment of its quality requires analysis of the whole forecast pdf. The assessment of the performance of prediction systems is used to inform both end users and system developers. Information on forecast quality can influence the decisions made by end users and provide direction to the system’s research and development efforts. In practice, short- and medium-range probabilistic forecasts are assessed using real-time forecasts over a certain period of time (typically a few months). However, in the case

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Kelley Murphy, Eric Bruning, Christopher J. Schultz, and Jennifer Vanos

Abstract

A lightning risk assessment for application to human safety was created and applied in 10 West Texas locations from 2 May 2016 to 30 September 2016. The method combined spatial lightning mapping data, probabilistic risk calculation adapted from the International Electrotechnical Commission Standard 62305-2, and weighted average interpolation to produce risk magnitudes that were compared to tolerability thresholds to issue lightning warnings. These warnings were compared to warnings created for the same dataset using a more standard lightning safety approach based on National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) total lightning within 5 nautical miles of each location. Four variations of the calculation as well as different units of risk were tested to find the optimal configuration to calculate risk to an isolated human outdoors.

The best performing risk configuration using risk 10min−1 or larger produced the most comparable results to the standard method, such as number of failures, average warning duration, and total time under warnings. This risk configuration produced fewer failures than the standard method, but longer total time under warnings and higher false alarm ratios. Median lead times associated with the risk configuration were longer than the standard method for all units considered, while median down times were shorter for risk 10min−1 and risk 15min−1. Overall, the risk method provides a baseline framework to quantify the changing lightning hazard on the storm-scale, and could be a useful tool to aid in lightning decision support scenarios.

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Mario P. Brito and Gwyn Griffiths

of failure or its likelihood of occurrence ( Subramanian et al. 1996 ). In this paper failure mitigation (risk mitigation) is achieved by reducing the likelihood of failure occurrence. While both Brito et al. (2014) and Rudnick et al. (2016) give emphasis to the role of mitigation through failure prevention and correction, neither presents an analytical framework for updating the risk profile based on a structured assessment of the understanding and elimination of failure modes and the

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Erika J. Palin, Adam A. Scaife, Emily Wallace, Edward C. D. Pope, Alberto Arribas, and Anca Brookshaw

winter weather ( House of Commons Transport Committee 2011 , p. 9). In this paper we discuss new developments in the Met Office Global Seasonal forecasting system (GloSea; Arribas et al. 2011 ) that could permit the development of risk-based seasonal forecasts of U.K. winter transport disruption. We use examples of impacts on rail, road, and aviation to illustrate the relationships on which these forecasts could be built. 2. Predictability of winter conditions at seasonal time scales The North

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John A. Hart and Ariel E. Cohen

state of the atmosphere. However, they did identify the possibility of using diagnostic data to explicitly express probabilistic information in severe thunderstorm forecasting, in which the combination of occurrences of events and nonevents (null cases) is used to derive the probability of event occurrence. This notion is the foundation of a companion paper, in which Hart and Cohen (2016) developed the Statistical Severe Convective Risk Assessment Model (SSCRAM). This system couples 9 yr of

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Filipe Aires

practice, awareness of higher risks from hurricanes, or the modification of energy consumption and production. Therefore, it is important to obtain models that establish the link between the climate and the underlying human activity. “Climate or weather indices” have been developed for this purpose (depending on the time scale under consideration). These indices are based on weather or climate information and are designed to be as correlated as possible with the human activity under study. For example

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Christopher M. Little, Radley M. Horton, Robert E. Kopp, Michael Oppenheimer, and Stan Yip

1. Introduction Coastal flood risk assessments require the characterization of the magnitude and sources of uncertainty in future local sea level (LSL; NPCC2 2013 ; Hinkel et al. 2014 ; Kopp et al. 2014 ). LSL is influenced by atmospheric, oceanic, glaciological, and geological processes ( Stammer et al. 2013 ; Milne et al. 2009 ), and the local signature and time evolution of these processes is expected to vary in the future ( Church et al. 2011 , 2014 ; Kopp et al. 2014 ). However

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Chris Kent, Edward Pope, Nick Dunstone, Adam A. Scaife, Zhan Tian, Robin Clark, Lixia Zhang, Jemma Davie, and Kirsty Lewis

hazard information can provide a platform for assessing and developing near-term climate services and provide additional context to longer-term adaptation planning ( Hewitt et al. 2012 ; Hewitt and Golding 2018 ), including regional risk assessments ( Zhang 2004 ; Xu et al. 2013 ), agricultural insurance services ( Zhang et al. 2017 ), or identifying disaster losses ( Xie et al. 2014 ). Furthermore, natural climate variability is one of the main drivers of uncertainty within regional climate

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S. Niggol Seo and Laura A. Bakkensen

( Ali 1999 ; Woth et al. 2006 ; Karim and Mimura 2008 ; Frazier et al. 2010 ). Acknowledgments We thank the editor and anonymous reviewers for helpful comments. No funding was received for this research. REFERENCES Ali , A. , 1999 : Climate change impacts and adaptation assessment in Bangladesh . Climate Res. , 12 , 109 – 116 , doi: 10.3354/cr012109 . 10.3354/cr012109 Bakkensen , L. A. , and R. Mendelsohn , 2016 : Risk and adaptation: Evidence from global hurricane damages and

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Kevin M. Simmons, Paul Kovacs, and Gregory A. Kopp

the averages found in the NRC report ( Fricker et al. 2014 ). Lombardo et al. (2015) provided a similar analysis for the 22 May 2011 Joplin tornado, along with detailed damage statistics for residential construction. This work makes it possible to conduct benefit–cost analysis on wind-resistant construction in areas prone to high tornado risk. 3. Wind-resistant construction The new Moore, OK, building code ( City of Moore 2014 ) increased the design wind speed to 135 mph (3-s gust at 10 m in

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