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Hideo Shiogama, Seita Emori, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Tatsuya Nagashima, Tomoo Ogura, Toru Nozawa, and Toshihiko Takemura

1. Introduction Great uncertainty persists in future projections of the hydrological cycle response to global warming, which is caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols ( Meehl et al. 2007 ). One of the major sources of uncertainty is the large range of potential climate sensitivities of surface air temperature to radiative forcing ( Gregory et al. 2002 ; Forest et al. 2002 , 2006 ; Knutti et al. 2003 ; Murphy et al. 2004 ; Stainforth et al. 2005 ; Meehl et al

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Peter G. Baines and Chris K. Folland

oceanographic data. However, Knight et al. (2005) , based on model results and recent observed SST changes and after allowing for anthropogenic effects on SST, argue in favor of an increase in the thermohaline circulation strength associated with the recent sharp warming of North Atlantic SST. This conclusion is supported by Latif et al. (2006) . Thus we conclude that there is no convincing evidence of a slowing effect on the thermohaline circulation due to anthropogenic effects on climate. In fact we

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Camilla W. Stjern and Jón Egill Kristjánsson

1. Introduction The indirect effect of aerosols on climate incorporates several types of interactions. In the “Twomey effect” an addition of aerosols tends to lower cloud droplet sizes and increase cloud reflectivity for constant liquid water path ( Twomey 1977 ). “Cloud adjustments” concern the aerosol impact on cloud cover, cloud lifetime, and precipitation ( Albrecht 1989 ). The latter has proven a particularly complex part of the indirect aerosol effects, and observational and model

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Heiko Paeth, Felix Pollinger, and Christoph Ring

climate from models, as an essential basis for informing adaptation measures, is enhanced when observed trends and anomalies are consistent with the climate conditions that are simulated under prescribed anthropogenic forcings. In climatological research, this important objective is in the focus of the various approaches of climate change detection and attribution ( Hegerl et al. 2007b ; Bindoff et al. 2013 ). Both terms are closely interlinked to each other. In detail, detection aims at finding

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K. Kvale, K. Zickfeld, T. Bruckner, K. J. Meissner, K. Tanaka, and A. J. Weaver

1. Introduction As the body of knowledge grows regarding the possible worsening effects of an increasingly altered climate state, so too do concerns over how to avoid the most drastic outcomes. Intergovernmental collaboration on this topic was proclaimed by Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which calls for the avoidance of “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” ( UNFCCC 1992 ). Clearly any definition of “dangerous

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DáithíA. Stone, Myles R. Allen, and Peter A. Stott

are listed in Table 1 . Historical simulations are included only if the corresponding sections of the preindustrial control simulations have reached equilibrium, judged by lack of exceedance of a 0.2 K century −1 trend. All models include the changing anthropogenic forcings (ANT) of greenhouse gases (GHG) and tropospheric sulfate aerosols (SUL), while some also include the changing natural forcings (NAT) of stratospheric volcanic aerosols (VOL) and solar irradiance (SOL). We analyze simulations

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Feng Ma, Lifeng Luo, Aizhong Ye, and Qingyun Duan

meteorology to hydrology has significant impacts on water resources management, which depends strongly on both climate and catchment characteristics ( Van Loon and Van Lanen 2012 ). Therefore, hydrological drought features may display huge distinctions in different regions of the world, in spite of similar meteorological drought characteristics (e.g., number of events, duration, and severity; Van Loon et al. 2014 ). To better manage water resources and reduce the effects of droughts, understanding

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Ning Zhang and Yan Chen

1. Introduction Urbanization is one of the most extreme ways in which human activities change local land use and induce local land surface characteristics in urban areas that are substantially different from those in surrounding areas. These effects may alter the interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere (e.g., Grimmond et al. 2004 ) and may affect atmospheric processes ranging from the local scale, such as the urban climate/meteorological environment (e.g., C. L. Zhang et al

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Christopher P. Borick and Barry G. Rabe

) , and McCright (2011) all provide evidence that the effects of education on one’s views regarding global warming are significantly modified by their partisan affiliation and/or ideological leanings. Most recently, Hamilton and Stampone (2013) find that temperatures on the day of and day before an interview predict beliefs regarding anthropogenic climate change, but are concentrated primarily among individuals who are not affiliated with a political party. This is where our research enters into

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Elina Plesca, Verena Grützun, and Stefan A. Buehler

1. Introduction The effects of the increased anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions over the last two centuries have been investigated mostly from the point of view of the thermodynamical response of the climate system ( Shepherd 2014 ). This allows us to build an understanding of the expected changes in the global patterns of climate variables, but still leaves a wide margin for uncertainty in regional climate changes. The regional response to anthropogenic forcing is highly dependent on

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