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Tamay M. Özgökmen, Leonid I. Piterbarg, Arthur J. Mariano, and Edward H. Ryan

is often extremely difficult. Also, velocity errors accumulate as errors of prediction position, further reducing the limits of predictability. There has been a significant progress in the development of tools based on dynamical systems theory to address issues of Lagrangian mixing and transport in geophysical flows. These techniques focus on identifying the hyperbolic stagnation points, characterized by the intersection of a stable manifold (along which fluid particles are attracted toward the

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Kunihiro Aoki, Yasumasa Miyazawa, Tsutomu Hihara, and Toru Miyama

). All of this therefore implies that the transition among the Kuroshio paths is highly sensitive to the initial condition representing the state before the transition, and hence the Kuroshio path variability could be conceived as a probabilistic phenomenon associated with uncertainty involved in the initial condition. Accordingly, an ensemble forecast could be an effective means for providing a better forecast. Ensemble forecasts are widely utilized in short- and medium-range meteorological contexts

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Ants Leetmaa

-9-17.Unoki, S., 1957: On the w~ves due to tropical cyclones; mean distribution of wave heights and periods, or. Meieor. Yapan, $5, No. 5, 41-52.U. S. Air Force, 1972: Technique development summary. Air Weather Service, Directorate of Aerospace Services, Scott AFB, Ill.U. S. Naval Oceanographic Orifice, 1966: Techniques for forecast ing wind waves and swell. H. O. Pub. No. 604.Verploegh, G., 1961: On the accuracy and the interpretation of wave observations from selected ships. Working paper

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Youmin Tang, Richard Kleeman, and Andrew M. Moore

1. Introduction A very important task in ENSO forecasting is to determine the oceanic initial conditions as accurately as possible. Since the mid 1990s, a large effort has led to significant improvement in the initialization of ENSO prediction models through data assimilation of surface wind stress, subsurface in situ observations, and satellite observations. The availability of data is a core issue in data assimilation. The oceanic observations, in particular subsurface observations, are

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Samson Brand, Kevin Rabe, and Taivo Laevastu

AFB, IlLU. S. Naval Oceanographic Office, 1966: Techniques for forecast ing wind waves and swell. H. O. Pub. No. 604.Verploegh, G., 1961: On the accuracy and the interpretation of wave observations from selected ships. Working paper, WMO Commission for Maritime Meteorology.Observations of Large-Scale Depth Perturbations of the Main Thermocline~ ANTS LEETMAAAtlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratories, NOAh4, Miami, Fla. 3314924 August 1976 and 19 May 1977

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V. A. Ivanov, E. N. Pelinovsky, and T. G. Talipova

withthe regression dependence (2). In the region of higherwaves ( 3 events) the experimental data lie outside theregression curve. As for the analysis of waves higherthan 32 m, the data obtained are inadequate and thus,further investigation is required. A diagram of repetition rates can be used to forecastthe heights of intense internal waves in the Amazonpolygon. Similar to the way of solving analogous problems of forecasting storm waves (Davidan 1985) andtsunamis ( Go 1984 ), A r ( i.e., a wave

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Philippe Gaspar and Carl Wunsch

the difference between the true value q(k) and the estimate of it: ~(k)= q(k) - 4(kl k - 1 ) and the corresponding error covariance matrix is P(k[ k - 1 ) = E[~(k)~(k)r]. Then,the new measurements available at tk are combinedwith the model forecast to produce an updated stateestimate ~(klk) with a reduced error covariance matrixP(k[ k). The filtering process starts from known expected values of the initial state and its covariance: ~(010) = E[q(0)] (14a

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Carl Wunsch

scaling that wouldbe important considerations in less artificial circumstances. 2) I emphasized the availability of techniques forsolving and interpreting underdetermined systems.Because Fiadeiro and Veronis decided the only sensiblething to do with an underdetermined problem was tooverdetermine it (a very strong message in their paper),my concern was that others might be prematurely discouraged from trying procedures that I regard as powerful and useful, and for which the extensive experiencein

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J. A. Barth, J. S. Allen, and P. A. Newberger

flows over O( 1 ) bottom topographic variations and/orwith O( 1 ) isopycnal slopes. In addition, intermediate models dynamically filter out high-frequency gravityinertial motions leading, potentially, to higher computational efficiency and well-posed limited area forecast/hindcast models. Initial studies focus on single layer flows on an J:plane with a free surface, governed by theshallow-water equations. In Part I, various intermediate models are formulated and their accuracy assessed bycomparing

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Nadia Pinardi and Allan R. Robinson

dataset. The method consists of the assimilation of data by a quasi-geostrophicopen boundary model so that dynamically adjusted fields are produced. They are used to study local dynamicalvorticity and energy balances during 20 to 30 day benchmark forecast experiments. The data and forecasts show the presence of strong jets at the thermocline levels (100-1400 meters), whichintensify via a process of baroclinic conversion of available gravitational energy into kinetic energy. The formation

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