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Willi Schmid, Hans-Heinrich Schiesser, Markus Furger, and Mario Jenni

could no longer be documented. Damage to buildings was analyzed considering information from local newspapers and from the building insurance agencies. Interviews of people were complemented by inquiries with a survey form. This form was sent to all foresters in the communities that had reported damage. The data were integrated into a geographical information system, and damage maps were produced ( Jenni 1997 ). The damage region is hilly and is composed of a mix of forests, cultivated land (grass

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Nathan Snook, Ming Xue, and Youngsun Jung

would allow entities such as hospitals and stadiums sufficient time to respond in the event of a warning ( Stensrud et al. 2009 ). To achieve this goal, reliable short-term (0–3 h) forecasts at the convective scale will be vital. Because of the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, and inevitable errors in observations and NWP models, weather forecasts always contain uncertainty. No forecast is therefore complete without a description of its uncertainty ( NRC 2006 ), which is often expressed in terms of

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Bernhard Lettau

SummerMonsoon," presented at the 5th Technical Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 20-28 November, 1967, Caracas,Venezuela.210MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEWVOLUME 102(b)(c)Fro. 1. The geographical distribution of observed xvesterly wind components at 900 mb (shaded) and 850 mb (solid line), a) January, b) April, c) July, d) October.order-of-magnitude calculations, indicating however should be sufficient to delineate the regions of equatorialthat even the spotty

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I. Szunyogh and Z. Toth

, it has the advantage that persistent, slowly varying error patterns can be detected in the ensemble. This particular 30-day period, overlapping with the 1999 Winter Storm Reconnaissance program, was selected because a large number of diagnostics prepared for an earlier study ( Szunyogh et al. 2000 ) were already available. Here, we show only eddy statistics that are crucial to exploring the relationship between the location of the storm tracks and the geographical distribution of forecast error

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Ngar-Cheung Lau and Mary Jo Nath

ofreproducing the frequency and geographical dependence of the principal modes of variability in the NorthernHemisphere wintertime circulation.1. Introduction The strong dependence of the nature of atmosphericvariability on geographical location and on time scalehas long been recognized. Klein (1951) has documentedthe standard deviations and lagged autocorrelations ofpressure fluctuations on daily' time scales, and notedthat the spatial patterns of such statistics in the WesternHemisphere are dominated

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W. N. SHAW

reference to the hurricaneof August 14 and 15. The esact location of the vessel is notknown, other than as given in the extract from Captain Elli-gerss report:We received a telegram a t Taiiipico on August 11 fioni the United State3Weather Bureau, stating that a hurricane was approaching the Mexicanroast, but, as the following day did not show any signs of the approarh ofthe storm and as our boat was new ani1 well loaded, we sailed with a cargoof cattle at 2 p. m. of the 13th. ilirect for Havana. The wc

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John M. Brown and Kevin R. Knupp

. In view of thespatial and temporal continuity of the damage andthe eyewitness observations, we believe it mostlikely that T3 formed as a debris whirl near location GW at about 1436 CST (based on its positionrelative to T2) and traveled northeast, then north,as a continuous entity until a condensation funnel'began to form near location WC (.Figs. 8 and 10). Based on their independent survey and analysis,Fujitaa and Fujita and Forbes (1979, personal communication) concluded that a small cyclonic

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WILLIAM H. KLEIN

maximum latitude reached by theisobars or contours. Axes of maximum contour curvaturewere not considered because they are difficult to locateand frequently coincide with ridge or trough lines definedin the objective manner given above.GEOGRAPHICAL FREQUENCY OF RIDGES ANDTROUGHSThe preliminary phase of this project consisted of atabulation of the location of all mean ridges and troughs(as defined above) observed during the winter months ofthe past 20 years. This study was limited to the Atlantic

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Ross N. Hoffman

single entity although it is specified asa product in (2). Horizontal derivatives at the poleswhich are needed to evaluate SVEL and $DVN, requirespecial treatment. However, this is not of directinterest since Seasat did not make observations nearthe poles. Horizontal interpolation of u and v from theanalysis grid to data locations is needed to evaluate1836 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW

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turn their attention to a simplemethod of observing that may be very helpful in settling thepoints at issue. I f the aurora is an optical illusion,. such asthe rainbow or halo, then two observers at neighboring sta-tions, or one observer by moving from place to place, will ob-serve the beams and arches of light at the same altitude abovethe horizon. But if these are material entities having a defi-nite locus, then. as the observer changes his location, thearches and beams will change theirs, as

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