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J. Berner, S.-Y. Ha, J. P. Hacker, A. Fournier, and C. Snyder

-error scheme performance. Here we implement a scheme using multiple physics combinations (“multiphysics scheme”) and a stochastic kinetic-energy backscatter scheme into the same ensemble system and compare their performance to that of the system without model-error representation. We use the U.S. Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) Joint Mesoscale Ensemble (JME; Hacker et al. 2011 ), which is a limited-area ensemble system using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with Advanced Research WRF

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Javier Zavala-Garay, J. L. Wilkin, and H. G. Arango

height (SSH) and SST estimates provided by satellites, if correctly incorporated into the assimilation system, can be used to provide skillful forecast of the three-dimensional circulation up to 2 weeks into the future using ROMS. To provide a robust evaluation of the assimilation system, we study 2 yr of mesoscale ocean circulation in the EAC ( sections 2 ). The observations used for assimilation and validation during the 2-yr period are described in section 3 , and the IS4DVAR assimilation

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F. Anthony Eckel and Clifford F. Mass

1. Introduction Operational use of mesoscale, short-range (0–48 h) ensemble forecasting (SREF) has lagged far behind the successful implementation of medium-range (2–10 day) ensemble forecasting systems at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF; Toth and Kalnay 1993 ; Tracton and Kalnay 1993 ; Molteni et al. 1996 ). While research into mesoscale SREF application has been generally positive ( Du et al. 1997

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Thomas L. Black

JUNE 1994 NMC NOTES 265NMC NOTESThe New NMC Mesoscale Eta Model: Description and Forecast Examples THOMAS L. BLACKDevelopment Division, National Meteorological Center, NWS/NOAA, Washington, D.C.25 October 1993 and 1 February 1994ABSTRACT In mid-1994 a new version of the Eta Model will begin producing operational forecast guidance down tomesoscale ranges. This version

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Jaymes S. Kenyon, Daniel Keyser, Lance F. Bosart, and Michael S. Evans

1. Introduction In the most rudimentary sense, forecasts of precipitation accumulation require the consideration of both precipitation rate and duration (e.g., Doswell et al. 1996 ; Evans and Jurewicz 2009 ). Mesoscale precipitation bands, hereafter called mesoscale bands, are frequently observed in conjunction with extratropical cyclones, and enhanced precipitation rates within mesoscale bands can have an appreciable impact on precipitation accumulation. Moreover, because mesoscale bands

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Jaymes S. Kenyon, Daniel Keyser, Lance F. Bosart, and Michael S. Evans

1. Introduction In the most rudimentary sense, forecasts of precipitation accumulation require the consideration of both precipitation rate and duration (e.g., Doswell et al. 1996 ; Evans and Jurewicz 2009 ). Mesoscale precipitation bands, hereafter called mesoscale bands, are frequently observed in conjunction with extratropical cyclones, and enhanced precipitation rates within mesoscale bands can have an appreciable impact on precipitation accumulation. Moreover, because mesoscale bands

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Jeffrey D. Duda and William A. Gallus Jr.

precipitation forecasts . Wea. Forecasting , 24 , 1485 – 1497 . Bryan, G. H. , Wyngaard J. C. , and Fritsch J. M. , 2003 : Resolution requirements for the simulation of deep moist convection . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 131 , 2394 – 2416 . Davis, C. , Brown B. , and Bullock R. , 2006 : Object-based verification of precipitation forecasts. Part I: Methods and application to mesoscale rain areas . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 134 , 1772 – 1784 . Done, J. , Davis C. A. , and Weisman M. , 2004 : The

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Chanh Kieu, Cole Evans, Yi Jin, James D. Doyle, Hao Jin, and Jonathan Moskaitis

depend on the boundary conditions derived from global models. Specifically, we wish to quantify a relationship between track and intensity errors for the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclone (COAMPS-TC) model in this study. This question is of importance not only for future model development, but also of significance for further research on extracting the intrinsic intensity variability from real-time TC forecasts in different basins as discussed in K18 . Thus

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Daran L. Rife and Christopher A. Davis

1. Introduction The meteorological community is witnessing a relentless pursuit toward smaller horizontal grid spacing in numerical weather forecasts ( Mass et al. 2002 ). This pursuit is spurred by the tacit assumption that increased resolution will result in a corresponding increase in forecast accuracy. Although there is no guarantee that a mesoscale model will produce better forecasts simply when its grid spacing is decreased ( Brooks et al. 1992 ), researchers have theorized that numerical

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S. P. Ballard, B. W. Golding, and R. N. B. Smith

SEPTEMBER 1991 S.P. BALLARD, B. W. GOLDING AND R. N. B. SMITH 2107Mesoscale Model Experimental Forecasts of the Haar of Northeast ScotlandS. P. BALLARD, B. W. GOLDING* AND R. N. B. SMITHMeteorological Office, Bracknell, United Kingdom(Manuscript received l0 September 1990, in final form 11 March 1991)ABSTRACT A mesoscale model is used to simulate the diurnal evolution of sea fog offthe northeast Scottish coast observedon 27

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