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Adrien Colomb, Tarik Kriat, and Marie-Dominique Leroux

1. Introduction Over the last 20 years, significant progress has been made in the field of tropical cyclone (TC) numerical forecasting, mainly through a global reduction of track forecast errors. However, there is still room for improvement on the front of intensity guidance ( DeMaria et al. 2014 ). In this context, intensity forecasts given by operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models at the global scale, such as IFS 1 and GFS 2 are taken into account by TC forecasters, albeit

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K. Fraedrich and L. M. Leslie

AUOUST 1987 K. FRAEDRICH AND L. M. LESLIE 1645Evaluation of Techniques for the Operational, Single Station, Short-Term Forecasting of Rainfall at a Midlatitude Station (Melbourne) K. FRAEDRICH* AND L. M. LESLIEBureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, Victoria, 3001, Australia(Manuscript received 22 September 1986, in final form 21 January 1987)ABSTRACT Probabilit~ of

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Thibaut Montmerle

-by-point spatial covariances (such as homogeneity and isotropy), and balance relationships can be deduced analytically or by using linear regressions that are considered to model the multivariate parts of the covariances. These different entities are usually deduced from statistics performed on ensembles of forecast differences. A complete review of the different methods that have been developed in the main operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers to calibrate and to model can be found in

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John E. Janowiak, Peter Bauer, Wanqiu Wang, Phillip A. Arkin, and Jon Gottschalck

predictions have been conducted over the past few decades. Janowiak (1992) evaluated the performance of short-range forecasts (12–36 h) of precipitation that were generated by the operational numerical weather prediction models (ca. 1989) at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in the United States. One of the conclusions in that paper was that while the models did a very good job of representing the seasonal and

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Luc Gerard, Jean-Marcel Piriou, Radmila Brožková, Jean-François Geleyn, and Doina Banciu

microphysical treatment of subgrid- and resolved-condensation condensates. Section 2 describes the features of the model we have used, with a particular focus of the ones dedicated to the gray zone problems. Section 3 demonstrates the behavior of the scheme at meso-gamma scale, compared with a classical convective scheme and the case with no deep-convection parameterization. Operational model scores are presented in section 4 , while section 5 shows an example of operational forecast at three

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LLOYD W. VANDERMAN and WILLIAM G. COLLINS

950MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEWVol. 95, No. I2OPERATIONAL-EXPERIMENTAL NUMERICAL FORECASTING FOR THE TROPICS LLOYD W. VANDERMAN AND WILLIAM G. COLLINS National Meteorological Center, Weather Bureau, ESSA, Washington, D.C.ABSTRACT A primitive equation barotropic forecast model is employed independently at 700 mb. and 300 mb. to produce:I wind forecast to 36 hr. once daily (from 1200 GMT real data analyses) for the entire tropical belt between 48'N.:md 48"s. Experiments have

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David J. Stensrud and J. Michael Fritsch

2084 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 122Mesoscale Convective Systems in Weakly Forced Large-Scale Environments. Part Numerical Simulations and Implications for Operational Forecasting DAVID J. STENSRUDNOAA/ERL/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma J. MICHAEL FRITSCHDepartment of Meteorology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park

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Yue Zheng, Kiran Alapaty, Jerold A. Herwehe, Anthony D. Del Genio, and Dev Niyogi

1. Introduction Numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecast models have been greatly improved, motivated by the role of providing accurate forecasts about severe weather events to mitigate the loss of life and property. Furthermore, credibility of climate change simulations at urban scales can be increased by first improving the accuracy of high-resolution model simulations at weather prediction time scales ( Chen et al. 2011 ). In particular, moist processes play an important role in properly

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R. J. Reed, A. Hollingsworth, W. A. Heckley, and F. Delsol

824 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUM-116An Evaluation of the Performance of the ECMWF Operational System in Analyzing andForecasting Easterly Wave Disturbances over Africa and the Tropical Atlantic R. J. REED, A. HOLLINGSWORTH, W. A. HECKLEY AND F. DELSOLEuropean Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, $hinfield Park, Reading, Berkshire, RG2 9AX, England(Manuscript received 30 March

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Stacy R. Stewart and John P. Cangialosi

portions of Central America, which created mud slides that caused 38 deaths in Guatemala. 5. Forecast verification and warnings For all operationally designated tropical cyclones in its area of responsibility, the NHC issues an official tropical cyclone track (latitude and longitude of the circulation center) and intensity (maximum 1-min wind speed at 10 m above the surface) forecast every 6 h. These forecasts are made for the 12-, 24-, 36-, 48-, 72-, 96-, and 120-h periods from the initial synoptic

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