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Linus Magnusson, Jean-Raymond Bidlot, Simon T. K. Lang, Alan Thorpe, Nils Wedi, and Munehiko Yamaguchi

tropical cyclone, the forecast is very sensitive to the phasing between the tropical cyclone and the midlatitude flow ( Ritchie and Russell 2007 ). Here a bifurcation can occur that leads to large forecast errors ( Scheck et al. 2011 ; Grams et al. 2013 ). Fig . 2. ECMWF analyses of Z500 (dashed, intervals of 50 m) and MSLP below 990 hPa (solid, intervals of 5 hPa). 3. Medium-range forecasts In this section we investigate the skill of the predictions of Hurricane Sandy in the operational forecasts

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Matthew Sitkowski, James P. Kossin, and Christopher M. Rozoff

level pressure less than 900 mb . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 127 , 987 – 1004 . Elsberry , R. L. , T. D. B. Lambert , and M. A. Boothe , 2007 : Accuracy of Atlantic and eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity forecast guidance . Wea. Forecasting , 22 , 747 – 762 . Franklin , J. L. , M. L. Black , and K. Valde , 2003 : GPS dropwindsonde wind profiles in hurricanes and their operational implications . Wea. Forecasting , 18 , 32 – 44 . Franklin , J. L. , R. J. Pasch , L

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A. Zadra, R. McTaggart-Cowan, P. A. Vaillancourt, M. Roch, S. Bélair, and A.-M. Leduc

. Description of the forecast model and methods used for TC forecast evaluation The Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM) ( Côté et al. 1998a , b ) is the numerical model developed and maintained for operational NWP at Environment Canada. The dynamical core of GEM uses a fully implicit semi-Lagrangian method to solve its set of primitive equations. The hydrostatic configuration of the GDPS used in this study is based on a nonrotated latitude–longitude grid with a horizontal grid spacing of 0.3° in

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Stephen D. Burk and William T. Thompson

NOVEMBER 1982 STEPHEN D. BURK AND WILLIAM T. THOMPSON 1535Operational Evaluation of a Turbulence Closure Model Forecast System STEPHEN D. BURK AND WILLIAM T. THOMPSONNaval Environmental Prediction Research Facility, Monterey, CA 93940(Manuscript received 21 February 1982, in final form 16 June 1982) ABSTRACT A one-dimensional turbulence model has been coupled with the large

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William L. Morse

in strength). The importance of care, and skill, in this type ofcombined-data synoptic analysis clearly 'must befurther emphasized.Comments on "Operational Objective Temperature Forecasts at Non.MOS Stations" WILLIAM L. MORSEU.S. Department o- Energy, 8onne~l!!e Power Administration, Portland, OR 97208I December 1977 The Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) is amajor user of Model Output Statistics (MOS)weather forecasts. Recently, BPA has contractedthe National

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Joseph R. Bocchieri

VOL. 107, NO. 6 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW JUNE 1979A New Operational System for Forecasting Precipitation Type JOSEPH R. BOCCHIERITechniques Development Laboratory, National Weather Service, NOAA, Silver Spring, Md 20910(Manuscript received 31 October 1978, in final form 9 February 1979) ABSTRACT A new system is developed which gives conditional probability forecasts

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Jian Ling, Peter Bauer, Peter Bechtold, Anton Beljaars, Richard Forbes, Frederic Vitart, Marcela Ulate, and Chidong Zhang

. MJO initiation dates are marked above the horizontal lines to the left. Tracked amplitudes (amp) and propagation speed (spd) are given for each event (see section 2 ). (b) Corresponding time series of RMM index amplitude (curve) and phases (colors). The global measure is the all-season Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index of Wheeler and Hendon (2004) . It has been used to assess the statistics of MJO forecast skill of operational and research models ( Lin et al. 2008 ; Gottschalck et al. 2010

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Lizzie S. R. Froude

. Section 2 provides a description of the data used in this study, and section 3 describes the analysis method. The results are presented in section 4 , and the paper finishes with a discussion and conclusions in section 5 . 2. Data description The ECMWF EPS data used in this study are from the 1-yr time period of 6 January 2005–5 January 2006. During this time period the ensemble forecasts were integrated at a spectral resolution of T255 with 40 vertical levels using the operational forecast model

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XiaoJing Jia and Hai Lin

observed climate trends in the forecast are investigated and followed by the conclusion and discussions in section 5 . 2. Data and models The Canadian Climate Variability Research Network has conducted a project termed the Historical Forecasting Project (HFP). The project aimed to test how well seasonal-mean atmospheric conditions could be predicted using dynamical general circulation models in an operational environment and to produce a sequence of forecasts for many years in order to obtain

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David R. Ryglicki, James D. Doyle, Daniel Hodyss, Joshua H. Cossuth, Yi Jin, Kevin C. Viner, and Jerome M. Schmidt

to an operational forecast. For demonstration, we choose a high-impact atypical RI TC that was not part of the original six from Part I but nevertheless underwent RI in moderate vertical wind shear: 2016 northern Atlantic (NATL) Matthew ( Stewart 2017 ). For this analysis, we use SHIPS and CIMSS shear analyses, GOES-13 WV observations, CIMSS AMVs, and 0.5° GFS analyses. We use the GFS analyses here in an attempt to simulate operational conditions more closely. The decomposition of the GFS

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