Search Results

You are looking at 61 - 70 of 157 items for :

  • Weather, Climate, and Society x
  • All content x
Clear All
Ann Bostrom, Rebecca E. Morss, Jeffrey K. Lazo, Julie L. Demuth, Heather Lazrus, and Rebecca Hudson

probability forecasts that describe the probability of tropical storm force (≥34 kt; 1 kt = 0.51 m s −1 ), 58 mph (≥50 kt) and hurricane force (64 kt) winds occurring at individual locations. If you really want to know your risk, that’s the product to go to” (NHC1). Even though this forecaster believes that the probabilistic wind forecasts produced by NHC are more valuable than the cone graphic for evaluating risk, none of the public officials or broadcasters happened to mention these products; they

Full access
Julie A. Silva and Corene J. Matyas

). These weather patterns impact agricultural production by causing delays in planting, forcing crops to be replanted, decreasing crop yields, and forcing farmers to alter traditional agricultural practices in response to altered conditions ( Silva et al. 2010 ). Previous studies have found Mozambican farmers to be highly vulnerable to such weather extremes because of, among other reasons, their limited use of irrigation and high levels of poverty ( Arndt and Baçou 2000 ; Patt and Schröter 2008

Full access
Micah J. Hewer and William A. Gough

, including the use of the Gough–Fenech confidence index (GFCI) and the creation of selective ensembles, see Hewer and Gough (2016a) . As a product of this approach, Table 2 presents the selective ensemble of seasonal GCM outputs for Tmax and totP at Strathroy from 2011 to 2100 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Note that RCP4.5 represents a low radiative forcing, stabilization scenario, whereas RCP8.5 represents a high radiative forcing, increased emissions scenario ( IPCC 2014 ). Table 2. Selective ensemble

Open access
Julie Brugger and Michael Crimmins

initial organizers, became the group’s first chairman and continues to serve as a sustaining force, a role made possible by his longtime residence in the region, relationships of trust and credibility he has developed with local decision makers despite differing viewpoints, and the broader expertise within UACE and respect for the organization on which he can draw. Members came to include mayors, county supervisors, and representatives from the Arizona Game and Fish Department (AZGFD), the U.S. Fish

Full access
Morgan E. Gorris, James E. Neumann, Patrick L. Kinney, Megan Sheahan, and Marcus C. Sarofim

the Earth system’s response to greenhouse gas forcing. We gathered monthly output for surface precipitation, maximum surface air temperature, and minimum surface air temperature and regridded the data to 1/8° × 1/8° resolution from 1/16° × 1/16° resolution. We calculated the mean surface air temperature by averaging the output of maximum and minimum surface air temperatures. We averaged the raw, gridded LOCA output to calculate mean annual temperature and precipitation for 20-yr means centered

Open access
Iván J. Ramírez, Sue C. Grady, and Michael H. Glantz

. [Available online at .] Chavez, F. P. , 1996 : Forcing and biological impact of onset of the 1992 El Niño in central California . Geophys. Res. Lett. , 23 , 265 – 268 . Chavez, F. P. , Bertrand A. , Guevarro-Carrasco R. , Soler P. , and Csirke J. , 2008 : The northern Humboldt Current system: Brief history, present status and a view towards the future . Prog. Oceanogr. , 79 , 95 – 105 . Checkley, W. , Epstein L. D. , Gilman R. H. , Figueroa D

Full access
Christopher A. Fiebrich, Jadwiga R. Ziolkowska, Phillip B. Chilson, and Elizabeth A. Pillar-Little

construction or for industrial production). In effect, unwanted ripple effects can be avoided that would otherwise compromise household budgets, force people into poverty or homelessness, and disrupt businesses or put them out of operation, thus affecting human welfare and the economic welfare of the entire regional society. Changes in business operations would cause indirect effects via shifted or discontinued purchases in production materials and thus affect other production-related sectors. Similarly

Open access
Kerry Emanuel, Fabian Fondriest, and James Kossin

30% of its initial capital, the company will go out of business. We regard this number as a lower bound, in keeping with our strategy of erring on the side of high potential utility of seasonal forecasts; in reality, marketplace and regulatory pressures would likely force the insurer out of business 1 at levels somewhat higher than this. To decrease such volatility, real companies purchase reinsurance policies, which can take any of a large number of forms. Here, we will simply suppose that the

Full access
Ernest Agee and Lindsey Taylor

warning. Also, this period experienced what many still call today “the best tornado forecast ever made” namely, the Fawbush and Miller prediction for Tinker Air Force Base in 1948 (see Maddox and Crisp 1999 ). 2) Period V (1950–83) This period begins with the start of the modern tornado record, as well as the Weather Bureau lifting the ban on issuing tornado warnings to the public. Period V represents a period of substantial effort to study, observe, and predict tornadoes, pushing the envelope of

Open access
Amanda H. Lynch and Ronald D. Brunner

Conference on 7–18 December 2009 in Copenhagen. This epistemic community has delivered dramatic progress in observing and understanding the changing climate system. Global mean temperature and sea level since 1990 are rising at a rate in the upper range or higher that projected in the most recent scenarios conducted for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report ( Rahmstorf et al. 2007 ). Concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are sufficient to force significant changes on natural and human systems

Full access