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Joshua M. Boustead, Barbara E. Mayes, William Gargan, Jared L. Leighton, George Phillips, and Philip N. Schumacher

Wilhelmson R. B. , 1994 : The role of midtropospheric winds in the evolution and maintenance of low-level mesocyclones . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 122 , 126 – 136 . Bunkers, M. J. , 2002 : Vertical wind shear associated with left-moving supercells . Wea. Forecasting , 17 , 845 – 855 . Bunkers, M. J. , Klimowski B. A. , Zeitler J. W. , Thompson R. L. , and Weisman M. L. , 2000 : Predicting supercell motion using a new hodograph technique . Wea. Forecasting , 15 , 61 – 79 . Bunkers, M. J

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Harold H. Opitz, Solomon G. Summer, David A. Wert, Warren R. Snyder, Richard J. Kane, Raymond H. Brady, Paul M. Stokols, Stephan C. Kuhl, and Gary M. Carter

MARCH 1995 OPITZ ET AL. 91The Challenge of Forecasting Heavy Rain and Flooding throughout the Eastern Region ofthe National Weather Service. Part II: ]Forecast Techniques and ApplicationsHAROLD H. OPITZ,* ## SOLOMON G. SUMMER, t DAVID A. WERT,#@@ WARREN R. SNYDER, @RICHARD J. KANE, & RAYMOND H. BRADY,* * PAUL M. STOKOLS, tt STEPHAN C. KUHL, tt AND GARY M. CARTERtt - NOAA

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Chermelle Engel and Elizabeth Ebert

1. Introduction Forecasters in Australian regional weather forecasting centers have a wealth of numerical model guidance available to them, including regional models produced in the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) and a subset of the guidance from global models produced in other international centers. When guidance is available from a number of different models, consensus-forecasting techniques, which combine the models, have been found to be more accurate on the average than

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Mingling R. Wu, Bradley J. Snyder, Ruping Mo, Alex J. Cannon, and Paul I. Joe

. The findings are used to develop conceptual models to facilitate operational forecasts. Descriptions of data and classification techniques, together with a brief verification of snowfall warnings for EVI, are given in section 2 . The principal weather patterns leading to heavy snow in EVI are described in section 3 . Key weather ingredients associated with the principal weather patterns are examined in section 4 . Conceptual models illustrating the interactions between synoptic-scale flows and

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Eric M. Guillot, Thomas H. Vonder Haar, John M. Forsythe, and Steven J. Fletcher

combination of persistence and displacement cloud nowcasting techniques (i.e., a hybrid technique) will exhibit more forecast skill than either technique alone. This is due to complex topography regenerating stationary clouds as upslope flow forces air to rise to its lifting condensation level. This research examines cloud forecast performance from a variety of approaches in a 2–4.5-h nowcasting time frame. We expect cloud persistence techniques to decline over time and eventually become less skillful

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Pin-Fang Lin, Pao-Liang Chang, Ben Jong-Dao Jou, James W. Wilson, and Rita D. Roberts

processes to low-level thermodynamic fields . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 124 , 1767 – 1785 . Donaldson, R. J. , Dyer R. M. , and Krauss M. J. , 1975 : An objective evaluator of techniques for predicting severe weather events. Preprints, Ninth Conf. on Severe Local Storm, Norman, OK, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 321–326 . Doswell, C. A., III , 1987 : The distinction between large-scale and mesoscale contribution to severe convection: A case study example . Wea. Forecasting , 2 , 3 – 16 . Earls, J. , and

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Peter Vogel, Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink, Andreas Schlueter, and Tilmann Gneiting

probability distributions allows a point mass for zero precipitation and flexible modeling in positive precipitation accumulations, depending on the specifics of the ensemble forecast at hand. For mathematical details we refer to the original paper by Scheuerer (2014) . Postprocessing techniques rely on statistical parameters that need to be estimated from training data, comprising forecast–observation-pairs from the TRMM pixel at hand and typically from a rolling training period consisting of the n

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Cristina Alexandra Carrasco, Christopher William Landsea, and Yuh-Lang Lin

results presented here, only subjective adjustments to intensity forecasting can be made based upon the inner-core size of the tropical cyclone because this component must be placed into the context of the existing environmental factors. A possible next step with this work is to examine whether inner-core size could be incorporated into statistical intensity forecasting [SHIPS, DeMaria et al. (2005) ; Logistic Growth Equation Model (LGEM), DeMaria (2009) ; and RII, Kaplan et al. (2010) ] techniques

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David A. Call

et al. 2001 ). Additionally, some coordination between adjacent offices would help with adjusting the intensity of the warning language to an appropriate level for the audience and forecasted situation. 5. Discussion and conclusions Thirty-nine National Weather Service warning coordination meteorologists completed a survey asking for their opinions of the ice storm hazard and about the techniques they use to warn the government and the general public. Participants completed the survey either with

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Christopher D. Karstens, James Correia Jr., Daphne S. LaDue, Jonathan Wolfe, Tiffany C. Meyer, David R. Harrison, John L. Cintineo, Kristin M. Calhoun, Travis M. Smith, Alan E. Gerard, and Lans P. Rothfusz

likelihood of severe convective weather occurrence, all with the goal of enhancing forecaster situational awareness and extending warning lead time. With the continued emergence of analytical and predictive techniques, how can all of the aforementioned information be utilized by forecasters, particularly within the time constraints associated with warning decisions? The Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs; Rothfusz et al. 2014 ) project proposes a reinvention of the current NWS

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