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Nicholas T. Luchetti, Jessica R. P. Sutton, Ethan E. Wright, Michael C. Kruk, and John J. Marra

outlooks. This is especially true considering that in the past, forecasters were using the older, spatially limited station-based atlas as their only climatological reference tool. The results of this project were shared with science advisors, partners, and end-users to highlight information about the effects of ENSO rainfall in the USAPI, as well as to view the seasonal maps and time series figures made by the NASA DEVELOP Pacific Water Resources team. This atlas can also be used for community

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Eric Guilyardi, Andrew Wittenberg, Magdalena Balmaseda, Wenju Cai, Matthew Collins, Michael J. McPhaden, Masahiro Watanabe, and Sang-Wook Yeh

sensitivity to strong El Niños than to either La Niñas or moderate El Niños. The seasonally and ENSO-modulated advective warming effects of tropical instability waves on the equatorial Pacific cold tongue were also highlighted. The initial equatorial heat content has traditionally been viewed as an essential precursor for ENSO events. However, a presentation showed that coupled model simulations could spontaneously generate ENSO events without subsurface precursors or large-scale wind triggers, albeit

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Ed Hawkins, Pablo Ortega, Emma Suckling, Andrew Schurer, Gabi Hegerl, Phil Jones, Manoj Joshi, Timothy J. Osborn, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Juliette Mignot, Peter Thorne, and Geert Jan van Oldenborgh

could also be used in approach 3. However, it is important that such efforts focus on all seasons, as we discuss next. Seasonal effects in proxies, observations, and simulations. There are likely some seasonal differences in the rates of temperature change that are important to consider (e.g., Hegerl et al. 2011 ; Jones et al. 2014 ). For example, different proxies are sensitive to climate in certain seasons. In general, summer is more widely represented because many proxies rely on biological

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Samuel Jonson Sutanto, Henny A. J. Van Lanen, Fredrik Wetterhall, and Xavier Llort

surge ( de Vries 2009 ; Bajo and Umgiesser 2010 ). While EWS for floods and landslides require forecasts at shorter lead times, such as hours and days, a drought EWS requires longer forecasts lead times ranging from monthly up to seasonal because of its creeping nature ( Tallaksen and Van Lanen 2004 ). The historical lack of skill to produce robust monthly precipitation forecasting products ( Vitart 2004 ; Buizza and Leutbecher 2015 ) is the main reason why seasonal drought EWS is less developed

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Marlene Kretschmer, Dim Coumou, Laurie Agel, Mathew Barlow, Eli Tziperman, and Judah Cohen

; Butler et al. 2014 ; Baldwin and Dunkerton 2001 ; Sigmond et al. 2013 ; Kretschmer et al. 2016 ). Moreover, it was shown that sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) can modulate the tropospheric flow for up to 2 months ( Baldwin and Dunkerton 2001 ; Hitchcock and Simpson 2014 ), which can even offset the impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events ( Polvani et al. 2017 ). Consequently, including stratosphere activity in climate models significantly improves seasonal forecast skill for

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Jinyoung Rhee, Wenju Cai, Neil Plummer, Mannava Sivakumar, Nina Horstmann, Bin Wang, and Dewi Kirono

.jsp?symp_yy=2013 ). The event was organized by the APEC Climate Center and the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics, with financial support from the APEC Secretariat. APEC CLIMATE SYMPOSIUM 2013: REGIONAL COOPERATION ON DROUGHT PREDICTION SCIENCE FOR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS AND MANAGEMENT W hat : Approximately 100 participants from academia, government, and the private sector presented research regarding innovative techniques in drought monitoring and seasonal climate prediction along

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Chris Hewitt, Carlo Buontempo, Paula Newton, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Kerstin Jochumsen, and Detlef Quadfasel

, Exeter, United Kingdom Recognizing that there are significant risks and opportunities for society arising from changes in the climate, the European Climate Observations, Modeling and Services (ECOMS) initiative was formed in 2012. ECOMS has ensured close cooperation across climate-related projects in Europe and beyond, and has identified priorities for climate modeling and climate services. ECOMS is led by three major European projects: European Provision of Regional Impacts Assessments on Seasonal

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Annalise G. Blum and Andy Miller

appropriate amounts of water for agriculture and ecosystems as well as managing drought risk require information on the subseasonal and seasonal time scales (two weeks to two years). This is because, in many regions, water is provided by a few days of heavy precipitation, while droughts develop over long periods of time. Predictions beyond two weeks have improved by quantifying the effects of teleconnections, snow cover, groundwater, and other factors, but it is uncertain if and when these forecasts will

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Philip J. Klotzbach, Johnny C. L. Chan, Patrick J. Fitzpatrick, William M. Frank, Christopher W. Landsea, and John L. McBride

fundamental contributor: cumulus–convective-scale interactions, observational methodologies and techniques, TC inner-core structure, TC track or motion, tropical cyclogenesis, seasonal TC prediction, and climate change impact on TCs. In each case, we summarize the intellectual contribution of Gray and put it in the context of the current state of knowledge. TROPICAL CONVECTION–LARGE-SCALE SURROUNDING CIRCULATION. A primary area of Gray’s research in the 1970s was the interaction between cumulonimbus

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Peter Knippertz, Hugh Coe, J. Christine Chiu, Mat J. Evans, Andreas H. Fink, Norbert Kalthoff, Catherine Liousse, Celine Mari, Richard P. Allan, Barbara Brooks, Sylvester Danour, Cyrille Flamant, Oluwagbemiga O. Jegede, Fabienne Lohou, and John H. Marsham

understanding and satellite retrievals; regional meteorological models to provide information on rainfall types and seasonal evolution; global models to assess effects of cloud-radiative forcing and precipitation on the WAM system, including feedbacks and future scenarios. All DACCIWA observations, including satellite data, will be used for model evaluation in detailed case studies. This work will be complemented by statistical analyses of selected existing model data (reanalysis, climate simulations, and

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