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Zane Martin, Adam Sobel, Amy Butler, and Shuguang Wang

. 2019 ). c. QBO decadal temperature anomalies In this section we look at whether QBO temperature anomalies show longer-term trends or variability independent of season. We take two approaches to quantifying these longer-term changes: from the 40-yr span of data from 1979 to 2019 we first divide the record in half and separately examine the periods 1979–99 and 1999–2019. The year 1999 was chosen so that the statistics are roughly the same in each period; changing the precise year does not change the

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Sumant Nigam, Agniv Sengupta, and Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas

” drought over the Great Plains of North America has been linked to decadal SST variability in the Pacific (e.g., Ting and Wang 1997 ; Nigam et al. 1999 ; McCabe et al. 2004 ; Seager et al. 2005 ; Nigam et al. 2011 ) and Atlantic (e.g., Namias 1966 ; McCabe et al. 2004 ; McCabe and Palecki 2006 ; Ruiz-Barradas and Nigam 2005 ; Nigam et al. 2011 ) basins. The 1950s–80s “drying” of the Sahel has also been attributed to multidecadal SST variations ( Folland et al. 1986 ; Giannini et al. 2003

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Yuanlong Li and Weiqing Han

1. Introduction a. Indian Ocean sea level variability The global mean sea level has been rising at a rate of ~3 mm yr −1 during the past several decades as a result of thermal expansion and continental ice melt ( Church et al. 2004 , 2011 , 2013 ; Bindoff et al. 2007 ; Willis et al. 2010 ; Hay et al. 2015 ). Regional sea level changes, however, deviate significantly from the global mean rate, with enhanced sea level rise in some regions and sea level fall in others (e.g., Unnikrishnan

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Jan K. Rieck, Claus W. Böning, and Richard J. Greatbatch

1. Introduction During the last decade, it has become evident that a large fraction of variability in the global ocean is intrinsic in the sense that no interannual-to-decadal atmospheric variability is needed to drive oceanic variability on these time scales. Studies utilizing ocean general circulation models (OGCMs) have shown this intrinsic variability to manifest itself in sea surface height (SSH) variance ( Combes and Di Lorenzo 2007 ; Penduff et al. 2011 ; Sérazin et al. 2015 ) as well

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Yangyang Xu and Aixue Hu

1. Introduction The interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) is an internal climate mode characterizing the variability in the Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) at decadal and multidecadal time scales [i.e., beyond the interannual variability, such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)] ( Folland et al. 1999 ; Power et al. 1999 ). It has been recognized recently as a primary source of global-mean temperature variability, and it plays a vital role in modulating the actual pace of

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Ralf Hand, Jürgen Bader, Daniela Matei, Rohit Ghosh, and Johann H. Jungclaus

1. Introduction Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is the dominant mode of sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic on decadal time scales ( Schlesinger and Ramankutty 1994 ). Because the ocean’s heat capacity is much higher than that of the atmosphere, a better understanding of the ocean dynamics and the pathways by which temperature anomalies in the upper ocean are communicated to the atmosphere might offer a potential to improve the predictability for the North

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Esther Portela, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, Christophe Maes, and Virginie Thierry

1. Introduction The ocean water-mass variability is intimately linked to the atmospheric changes as they are imprinted at the ocean surface by the natural climate modulation and anthropogenic forcing. Recent studies have shown that the ocean warming during the last decade has been mainly concentrated in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere ( Häkkinen et al. 2016 ; Roemmich et al. 2015 ; Kolodziejczyk et al. 2019 ). In particular, hot spots of ocean warming have been localized in the southern

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Lu Dong and Michael J. McPhaden

1. Introduction Improved understanding of decadal variability can help with better prediction of decadal climate variations and adaptation to climate change ( Goddard et al. 2009 ; Hurrell et al. 2009 ; Meehl et al. 2009a ). In addition to the well-known Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)/interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) (e.g., Mantua et al. 1997 ; Power et al. 1999 ) and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) (e.g., Enfield et al. 2001 ), decadal variations in the Indian Ocean

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Dallas Foster, Darin Comeau, and Nathan M. Urban

Southern Ocean ( Latif et al. 2017 ; Zhang et al. 2017 ), where interannual- to decadal-scale variability plays a strong role in oceanic forcing on the Antarctic ice sheet, particularly to the vulnerable West Antarctic Ice Sheet ( Jenkins et al. 2016 ). The main focus in this paper is the implementation, calibration, and evaluation of the LIM framework as applied to the forecasting of high-latitude SST anomalies using modern Bayesian statistical strategies and probabilistic scoring. We make use of the

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Liping Zhang and Thomas L. Delworth

1. Introduction The dominant pattern of observed sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Pacific is referred to as the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO; Mantua et al. 1997 ). The PDO has substantial decadal-scale variability, with characteristic time scales in the observed record of 15–25 yr and 50–70 yr ( Minobe 1997 ). The PDO spatial pattern associated is characterized by a “horseshoe shape,” with SST anomalies of one sign in the central and western North Pacific and SST

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