Search Results

You are looking at 71 - 80 of 1,782 items for :

  • Mesoscale forecasting x
  • Weather and Forecasting x
  • All content x
Clear All
Luca Mathias, Volker Ermert, Fanni D. Kelemen, Patrick Ludwig, and Joaquim G. Pinto

: Discrimination of mesoscale convective system environment using sounding observations . Wea. Forecasting , 22 , 1045 – 1062 , doi: 10.1175/WAF1040.1 . 10.1175/WAF1040.1 Coniglio , M. C. , and D. J. Stensrud , 2001 : Simulation of a progressive derecho using composite initial conditions . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 129 , 1593 – 1616 , doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<1593:SOAPDU>2.0.CO;2 . 10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<1593:SOAPDU>2.0.CO;2 Coniglio , M. C. , J. Y. Hwang , and D. J. Stensrud , 2010

Full access
Ezio L. Mauri and William A. Gallus Jr.

-producing convective systems . Wea. Forecasting , 19 , 320 – 337 , https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2004)019<0320:AOSODC>2.0.CO;2 . 10.1175/1520-0434(2004)019<0320:AOSODC>2.0.CO;2 Coniglio , M. C. , D. J. Stensrud , and L. J. Wicker , 2006 : Effects of upper-level shear on the structure and maintenance of strong quasi-linear mesoscale convective systems . J. Atmos. Sci. , 63 , 1231 – 1252 , https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3681.1 . 10.1175/JAS3681.1 Coniglio , M. C. , S. F. Corfidi , and J. S

Restricted access
Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein and Joshua P. Hacker

forecast uncertainty via a probabilistic procedure is important even for very short-term forecasts. Real-time mesoscale ensemble systems capable of providing skillful high-resolution [ O (1) km] probabilistic nowcasts and short-range forecasts of the PBL are beyond the capacity of present computational resources. Augmenting current high-resolution deterministic forecasts with probabilistic information is an alternative. Rostkier-Edelstein and Hacker (2010 , hereafter RH10 ) proposed one approach for

Full access
Hailing Zhang, Zhaoxia Pu, and Xuebo Zhang

complicated in complex terrain. Liu et al. (2008) conducted an interrange comparison of the model analyses and forecasts of five U.S. Army test and evaluation command ranges over a 5-yr period. They concluded that forecast errors vary from range to range and season to season. They also found that larger errors are typically associated with complex terrain. Zhong and Fast (2003) compared three mesoscale numerical models and evaluated the simulations over the Salt Lake Valley for cases influenced by

Full access
Xingqin Fang, Ying-Hwa Kuo, and Anyu Wang

impacts of Taiwan’s topography on the typhoon mesoscale structures and precipitation forecasts from a stochastic perspective. In this paper, we present results from high-resolution ensemble forecast experiments on Typhoon Morakot with and without Taiwan’s topography. Section 2 presents the experiment design. Section 3 discusses the role of Taiwan’s topography in Typhoon Morakot’s extreme rainfall. Section 4 examines the rainfall variability impacted by Taiwan topography. Section 5 investigates

Full access
Benjamin W. Green, Fuqing Zhang, and Paul Markowski

Research core of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-ARW; Skamarock et al. 2005 ) was used for this study. There were four two-way nested model domains (D1–D4) with the grid spacing decreased by factors of 3 from 40.5 to 1.5 km. The coarsest three model domains—with 160 × 120, 253 × 253, and 325 × 325 horizontal grid points in D1, D2, and D3, respectively—were initialized at 2000 UTC 27 August 2005 with a WRF-based ensemble Kalman filter [EnKF; Meng and Zhang (2008a , b) ] that

Full access
Yuxiao Chen, Jing Chen, Dehui Chen, Zhizhen Xu, Jie Sheng, and Fajing Chen

important reference to estimate the occurrence and intensity of heavy rainfall events ( Kain et al. 2008 ). By direct comparison with the observed radar reflectivity in real time, these simulated radar reflectivity products from NWP models can help people to better understand mesoscale processes ( Koch et al. 2005 ). Therefore, these simulated radar reflectivity products from NWP models are becoming increasingly popular among weather forecasters. How is simulated radar reflectivity determined from NWP

Open access
Howard B. Bluestein and Jeffrey C. Snyder

supercells. The specific objectives of this paper are 1) to determine the sequence of meteorological features that led to the observed mesoscale weather events in Oklahoma and parts of Texas and 2) to identify which most likely contributed to the forecast errors. We will focus on the synoptic- and mesoscale patterns of wind, temperature, and moisture, and how small changes in the intensity and location of a synoptic-scale disturbance may have led, via a chain of events, to changes in the surface moisture

Full access
Xinhua Liu, Kanghui Zhou, Yu Lan, Xu Mao, and Robert J. Trapp

-slanted type focused on the area within line 316 [as in (a), but for 15 Aug 2009, from Fig. 2 of Liu (2011) ]. (c) Case of a fracture type [as in (a), but for 12 Aug 2009, from Fig. 4 of Liu (2011) ]. Solid lines marked 588, 316, 152, and 1010 indicate subtropical high margins at 500, 700, 850 hPa, and the ground, respectively. d. Multiscale fusion From the forecast funnel perspective ( Snellman 1982 ), the forecast process begins with the synoptic- (or larger-) scale and is downscaled to the mesoscale

Open access
Xinhua Liu, Kanghui Zhou, Yu Lan, Xu Mao, and Robert J. Trapp

-slanted type focused on the area within line 316 [as in (a), but for 15 Aug 2009, from Fig. 2 of Liu (2011) ]. (c) Case of a fracture type [as in (a), but for 12 Aug 2009, from Fig. 4 of Liu (2011) ]. Solid lines marked 588, 316, 152, and 1010 indicate subtropical high margins at 500, 700, 850 hPa, and the ground, respectively. d. Multiscale fusion From the forecast funnel perspective ( Snellman 1982 ), the forecast process begins with the synoptic- (or larger-) scale and is downscaled to the mesoscale

Open access