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Ariaan Purich, Matthew H. England, Wenju Cai, Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, Axel Timmermann, John C. Fyfe, Leela Frankcombe, Gerald A. Meehl, and Julie M. Arblaster

1. Introduction The dipole pattern of recent Pacific sector sea ice trends, with decreasing ice in the Bellingshausen Sea and increasing ice in the Ross Sea, has been attributed to changing winds ( Holland and Kwok 2012 ; Fan et al. 2014 ) and specifically to the strengthening of the Amundsen Sea low ( Turner et al. 2009 , 2016 ; Clem and Fogt 2015 ; Clem and Renwick 2015 ; Meehl et al. 2016a ; Raphael et al. 2016 ). There is some suggestion that recent increasing Antarctic sea ice trends

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Nikolay V. Koldunov, Detlef Stammer, and Jochem Marotzke

1. Introduction The projection of sea ice provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggests a dramatic decline of Arctic summer sea ice extent (SIE) over the next 50 to 100 years. Yet, an analysis of the full ensemble of all IPCC climate projections of Arctic summer sea ice under increasing CO 2 conditions shows a considerable spread of individual simulations ( Stroeve et al. 2007 ) and reveals that only 50% of all solutions suggest an extinction of Arctic summer sea

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Tessa Sou and Gregory Flato

Zhang 2005 ; Stroeve et al. 2007 ), replacing natural variability as the dominant force in ice cover changes ( Melling 2001 ; Holloway and Sou 2002 ; Polyakov et al. 2003 ). Ice retreat has been regional, with losses primarily concentrated in the Beaufort and East Siberian Seas ( Stroeve et al. 2005 ). Previously, observations from 1979–99 indicated significant negative trends in sea ice extent in the eastern Arctic (e.g., Barents and Kara Sea) while the central Arctic and Canadian Arctic

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Thomas W. Collow, Wanqiu Wang, Arun Kumar, and Jinlun Zhang

1. Introduction According to the Fifth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), annual Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) is very likely (90%–100% confident) to have decreased at a rate of 0.45 to 0.51 million km 2 decade −1 during the 1979–2012 period ( Vaughan et al. 2013 ), leading to projections of a summer ice free Arctic by the 2030s ( Wang and Overland 2012 ). Sea ice loss can be attributed to both anthropogenic influences and natural variability ( Kay et

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Hannah M. Director, Adrian E. Raftery, and Cecilia M. Bitz

correct for these errors. This class of methods develops statistical representations of the error patterns in climate models using retrospective comparisons of observations and model output. These statistical representations are then used to correct for the expected error in predictions obtained from dynamical model forecasts ( Maraun 2016 ; Meehl et al. 2014 ). Arctic sea ice cover has decreased substantially in recent years, causing increased interest in predicting it ( Comiso et al. 2008

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Russell Blackport and Paul J. Kushner

1. Introduction Recent decades have seen the Arctic warm more than twice as fast as the global average temperature—a process known as Arctic amplification ( Holland and Bitz 2003 ; Screen and Simmonds 2010 ; Walsh 2014 ; Cohen et al. 2014 ). This has motivated investigation into the impacts of rapid Arctic warming and sea ice loss on the large-scale atmosphere circulation, including its contribution to extreme weather events at lower latitudes. However, there remains large uncertainties due

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Alexander D. Fraser, Robert A. Massom, Kelvin J. Michael, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, and Jan L. Lieser

1. Introduction Landfast sea ice (fast ice) is sea ice that is held stationary (fast) by being attached to coastal features (e.g., the shoreline, glacier tongues, and ice shelves), grounded icebergs, or grounded over shoals ( Massom et al. 2001 ; World Meteorological Organization 1970 ). It is a preeminent feature of the Antarctic coastal zone and an important interface between the ice sheet and pack ice/ocean. The reliance of fast ice upon these coastal features as anchor points means that it

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Mari F. Jensen, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, and Michael A. Spall

°C warming on Greenland. In recent years, the agent for the warming on Greenland is believed to be abrupt reductions in sea ice cover ( Broecker 2000 ; Gildor and Tziperman 2003 ; Masson-Delmotte et al. 2005 ), in particular over the Nordic seas ( Li et al. 2005 ; Dokken et al. 2013 ). During stadial conditions on Greenland, the Nordic seas are hypothesized to be fully sea ice covered, thereby insulating the relatively warm ocean from the cold atmosphere above. An abrupt reduction in sea ice

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Haixia Dai, Ke Fan, and Jiping Liu

the winter temperature of Northeast China ( Wu and Wang 2002 ; Liu et al. 2010 ; Wang and Chen 2010 ; Chen et al. 2013 ; He et al. 2017 ). Moreover, the phase transition of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)/AO accompanied by a super ENSO event ( Geng et al. 2017 ) has also been found to be related to a phase reversal of the Siberian high and EAWM in boreal winter, which may further affect cold blocking events and local cooling over East Asia ( Chang and Lu 2012 ). Anomalous Arctic sea ice

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M. Årthun, T. Eldevik, L. H. Smedsrud, Ø. Skagseth, and R. B. Ingvaldsen

1. Introduction The Arctic sea ice cover is a sensitive indicator of climate variability and change ( Serreze et al. 2007 ), and the diminishing Arctic sea ice has had a leading role in recent Arctic temperature amplification ( Screen and Simmonds 2010a ). In the Barents Sea ( Fig. 1a ), winter sea ice extent has decreased since 1850 ( Shapiro et al. 2003 ), and the retreat observed during the recent decades ( Fig. 2 ) has been the largest decrease in the Arctic ( Parkinson and Cavalieri 2008

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