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Maria E. B. Frediani, Thomas M. Hopson, Joshua P. Hacker, Emmanouil N. Anagnostou, Luca Delle Monache, and Francois Vandenberghe

outages, such as when areas of high wind speed are predicted at the incorrect location. The outage prediction model currently operates with regional deterministic NWP forecasts, and the potential to obtain ensemble wind speed predictions (thus accounting for weather variability) to drive the power outage prediction model at no additional computational cost motivated the development of this analog technique. With wind speed being the most important nonstatic variable in outage prediction model, the

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Jonathan M. Wilkinson

; Ebert 2009 ; Clark et al. 2010 ) and a range of neighborhoods from 12 to 96 km. Lynn et al. (2015) found that the ETS increased with increasing neighborhood size. However, as far as can be ascertained from the literature, no measure has been able to show what value such forecasts have above large-scale indices. In this manuscript, a new technique for determining the accuracy of lightning forecasts is developed and illustrated using UKV model lightning forecasts with the McCaul et al. (2009

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Peter A. Stamus, Frederick H. Carr, and David P. Baumhefner

JANUARY 1992 STAMUS ET AL. 149Application of a Scale-Separation Verification Technique to Regional Forecast Models PETER A. STAMUS*NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado FREDERICK H. CARRSchool of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma DAVID P. BAUMHEFNERNational Center for Atmospheric Research, * Boulder, Colorado

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Yunsung Hwang, Adam J. Clark, Valliappa Lakshmanan, and Steven E. Koch

operational concepts for managing strategic traffic flow, including examination of how improved weather data can aid traffic management initiatives efficiently ( Song et al. 2008 ). For short-term prediction of convection for route-planning applications, frequently updating high-resolution forecasts of convection are needed (i.e., nowcasts). To address this need, since about the early 1990s, various nowcasting techniques have been developed that rely on extrapolation (EXT) of observed convection as

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Ryan D. Torn and Gregory J. Hakim

. Previous studies on initial condition sensitivity have involved using the adjoint of a linearized forecast model. Adjoint sensitivity and singular vector analyses for extratropical cyclones emphasize structures in the lower troposphere, which have large vertical tilts and are not always obviously related to the major synoptic features (e.g., Errico and Vukicevic 1992 ; Langland et al. 1995 ; Rabier et al. 1996 ; Zou et al. 1998 ; Hoskins et al. 2000 ). Difficulties with these techniques include

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Mei Xu, David J. Stensrud, Jian-Wen Bao, and Thomas T. Warner

1. Introduction Most of the perturbation techniques developed for generating medium-range ensemble forecasts have concentrated on synoptic-scale weather systems over the midlatitudes that are associated with regions of baroclinic instability ( Palmer et al. 1992 ; Toth and Kalnay 1993 ; Buizza 1997 ; Houtekamer and Lefaivre 1997 ). This is a temporal and spatial scale that is well suited for numerical weather prediction, since numerical models are skillful in predicting baroclinic wave

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Astrid Suarez, Heather Dawn Reeves, Dustan Wheatley, and Michael Coniglio

forecasts include (a) a 12-km grid-spaced deterministic forecast, (b) a 3-km grid-spaced deterministic forecast, (c) a 12-km traditional ensemble forecast, and (d) a 12-km EnKF-based ensemble forecast. Although the accuracy and/or reliability of any forecast system cannot be gauged from a single forecast, this case study reveals some of the strengths of the EnKF technique, as well as potential problems that may be unique to the wintertime environment. This paper is organized as follows. An overview of

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Chermelle Engel and Elizabeth E. Ebert

; Tapp et al. 1986 ; Krishnamurti et al. 1999 ; Wilson and Vallée 2002 ), gene-expression programming ( Bakhshaii and Stull 2009 ), ensemble Kalman filter methods ( Cheng and Steenburgh 2007 ), and regime matching ( Greybush and Haupt 2008 ). Regression and gene-expression-programming techniques may remove more model and representativeness error but require years and almost a year, respectively, of stable forecast and observed paired information, and such information is not currently available for

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Keith F. Brill and Matthew Pyle

interest in revealing the behavior of the CPR relative to the benchmarks. High-resolution models often produce stochastically reasonable distributions of heavy precipitation, but fail to achieve proper placement of the accumulation areas relative to verifying observations. In fact, such placement errors have motivated other verification treatments known as spatial techniques (e.g., Gilleland et al. 2009 ; Mesinger 2008 ; Davis et al. 2006 , among others). Here, verification of 36-h forecasts of

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Yuchuan Lai and David A. Dzombak

et al. 2016 ), and to provide computational efficiency for regional climate modeling ( DuchÊne et al. 2020 ). At the same time, studies such as Cheng et al. (2014) and Hu and Ayyub (2018) have utilized particular data distribution theories and statistical techniques to model and project regional temperature and precipitation (especially extremes). A statistical forecasting model—the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model—was used in Lai and Dzombak (2020) to obtain city

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