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, correlations of the combined EOF modes and historical simulations of the P–E model and cross-validated P–E prediction model with the observed interannual component of SIC are computed. This reveals the potential predictability of this method in different locations and shows where the P–E models are performing best in the Arctic. 3. Assessment of interannual variability in historical model runs Comparisons of the interannual component of the CMIP5 historical simulations of SIC with satellite

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D. Randolph Watts, Karen L. Tracey, Kathleen A. Donohue, and Teresa K. Chereskin

with several fronts that signify partial barriers to cross-frontal exchange, meanders and eddies must play an important role in producing meridional fluxes in the Southern Ocean. An early study by de Szoeke and Levine (1981) suggested that along a mid-ACC path defined by the 2°C isotherm, transient eddies were almost entirely responsible for cross-frontal heat fluxes. Exchange across ACC fronts is thought to be particularly concentrated in just a handful of locations with energetic eddies and

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Sho Tanaka, Kazuaki Nishii, and Hisashi Nakamura

500 represents a monthly mean anomaly of 500-hPa geopotential height normalized by its standard deviation at a given location for each calendar month. Note that the grid points used in (1) are to the east of their counterpart in WG81 by 0.25°. The anomaly of a given variable for a given month is defined as a local deviation from its 32-yr climatological mean for the particular calendar month. The index is suitable for extracting a signature of dipolar height anomalies over the western North

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M. F. de Jong, A. S. Bower, and H. H. Furey

the entrance of the Labrador Sea used in the analysis is drawn as well as the box around the EKE maximum. The (sub)sections are 1) LC, 2) CENTER, 3) WGC, 4) IN, 5) FLANK, 6) OUT, and 7) MID. The location of the IRINGS mooring in indicated by the red cross off the FLANK section. The Bravo mooring is indicated by the red cross off the CENTER section. Isobaths are drawn at 500, 1000, 2000, and 3000 m. While the variability of Labrador Sea Water in the interior Labrador Sea is relatively well observed

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Adele K. Morrison, Stephen M. Griffies, Michael Winton, Whit G. Anderson, and Jorge L. Sarmiento

midlatitudes. The thick black line in the lower part of (b) shows the full depth and zonal integral of the ocean heat content change, with a range of 0–1.3 × 10 17 J m −1 . Figure 4 shows a close-up of the Southern Ocean portion of Fig. 3b and the relationship of the heat storage pattern to water mass locations. Contours of minimum potential vorticity are shown in gray, indicating Subantarctic Mode Water. Green lines show salinity contours, indicating the freshwater tongue extending down from the

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Kim I. Martini, Harper L. Simmons, Chase A. Stoudt, and Jennifer K. Hutchings


The evolution of the near-inertial internal wavefield from ice-free summertime conditions to ice-covered wintertime conditions is examined using data from a yearlong deployment of six moorings on the Beaufort continental slope from August 2008 to August 2009. When ice is absent, from July to October, energy is efficiently transferred from the atmosphere to the ocean, generating near-inertial internal waves. When ice is present, from November to June, storms also cause near-inertial oscillations in the ice and mixed layer, but kinetic energy is weaker and oscillations are quickly damped. Damping is dependent on ice pack strength and morphology. Decay scales are longer in early winter (November–January) when the new ice pack is weaker and more mobile, decreasing in late winter (February–June) when the ice pack is stronger and more rigid. Efficiency is also reduced, as comparisons of atmospheric energy available for internal wave generation to mixed layer kinetic energies indicate that a smaller percentage of atmospheric energy is transferred to near-inertial motions when ice concentrations are >90%. However, large kinetic energies and shears are observed during an event on 16 December and spectral energy is elevated above Garrett–Munk levels, coinciding with the largest energy flux predicted during the deployment. A significant amount of near-inertial energy is episodically transferred to the internal wave band from the atmosphere even when the ocean is ice covered; however, damping by ice and less efficient energy transfer still leads to low Arctic internal wave energy in the near-inertial band. Increased kinetic energy below 300 m when ice is forming suggests some events may generate internal waves that radiate into the Arctic Ocean interior.

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Edward R. Carr, Grant Fleming, and Tshibangu Kalala

climate forecasting for agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa . Exp. Agric. , 47 , 205 – 240 , doi: 10.1017/S0014479710000876 . Harris, L. M. , 2006 : Irrigation, gender, and social geographies of the changing waterscapes of southeastern Anatolia . Environ. Plann. , 24D , 187 – 213 , doi: 10.1068/d03k . Hu, Q. , and Coauthors , 2006 : Understanding farmers’ forecast use from their beliefs, values, social norms, and perceived obstacles . J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol. , 45 , 1190 – 1201 , doi

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James E. Overland and Muyin Wang

. The decrease in geopotential height over the central North Pacific and the increase over western North America shows a strengthening ridge over the west coast of North America. This eastward shift of the Pacific ridge shifted the accompanying trough over the eastern United States, moving its central location to the Atlantic and destroying the Greenland high-latitude block seen in the earlier part of the present decade. Fig . 5. Difference in the 700-hPa geopotential height field between winters

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Thomas W. Collow, Wanqiu Wang, Arun Kumar, and Jinlun Zhang

December averaged for 2009–13 between 170° and 200°E. The NASA Team and NASA Bootstrap data were essentially the same with a strong seasonal cycle ( Figs. 5e,f ). Taking the location of 15%–30% concentration to measure the sea ice evolution, the observed sea ice retreated northward from near 65°N in June to 76°N in August and September and then expanded southward reaching 62°N in December. CFSv2CFSR produced weak seasonal cycle with 15%–30% concentration reaching slightly to the north of 70°N in

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Bruno Ferron, Florian Kokoszka, Herlé Mercier, Pascale Lherminier, Thierry Huck, Aida Rios, and Virginie Thierry

datasets obtained from a unique realization of a transect, which gives us a snapshot of the mixing intensity at the time of the observations. While this approach is certainly important to map the geographical heterogeneity in the distribution of the diapycnal mixing and points toward mechanisms, one can question how representative such snapshots are because generating mechanisms leading to mixing processes are intermittent. Some recent studies used finescale and microscale observations from profilers

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