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Jonathan E. Martin, John D. Locatelli, and Peter V. Hobbs

perpendicular to one another at 0000 UTC 26January. Differential thermal advection in a horizontal deformation field can lead to a thermally direct verticalcirculation by increasing the magnitude of the horizontal temperature gradient and inducing accelerationsalong the front. Hence, in the absence of significantmomentum advection effects it is relatively simple toinfer the location of vertical circulations and frontalpositions by locating regions where the horizontal flowon isobaric surfaces acts to

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C. Warner, J. Simpson, D. W. Martin, D. Suchman, F. R. Mosher, and R. F. Reinking

latitude and longituderecognizable in the photos; also the box circuit, and the approximate locations of the ships Dallas (D) and Oceanographer (0). FIG. 11. Time-series plots of data from three aircraft, for the west side of the first box circuit. The plots are keyed to geographical location, shown in the middle. (Note that 0.1- of latitude = 11.1 kin.) Cross-hatching indicates the positions of thearcs shown in Figs. 6b and 6c, as derived from full resolution visible satellite images. At the

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Charles J. Neumann and Miles B. Lawrence

Efroymson(1964). However, retaining the three sets of forecastdisplacements as separate entities provides the hurricaneforecaster with important diagnostic information. Italso permits maximizing the size of the developmentdata set used by each sub-system. Finally, it providesfor the ability to assign weighting factors to eachsub-system based on operational rather than ondependent data (see Section 8.) Another feature of the new model is the use of anexpanded areal stratification system. The Atlantic

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Gary T. Riley and Lance F. Bosart

reports which do notoccur at a weather observation site). This toll easilymakes the Windsor Locks tornado the worst such eventin Connecticut history (Mogil and Campbell, 1980). Shown in Fig. 1 are the locations of severe weatherreports in the northeastern United State associated withthe storm complex that spawned the Windsor Lockstornado. The activity was concentrated in easternPennsylvania and New Jersey between 1200 and 1400UTC and in southern and central New England from1900 to 2220 UTC. A

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Adam H. Sobel, Chia-Ying Lee, Suzana J. Camargo, Kyle T. Mandli, Kerry A. Emanuel, Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay, and M. Mahakur

not pursue the former question further here. b. Historical tracks In this section we discuss historical cyclone tracks in the Arabian Sea. As geographical context for this and subsequent sections, Fig. 1 shows a map of western India (and southern Pakistan); Mumbai’s location is indicated by the red star, and Maharashtra, the state in which Mumbai is located, is labeled, as are the several surrounding states. Figure 2 shows a map of Mumbai and its surrounding regions. Fig . 1. Map of western

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M. I. Biggerstaff and R. A. Houze Jr.

system.The geographic boundary for each map from 0130to 0430 UTC of the convective region, identified asthe leading area of reflectivity exceeding 35 dBZ, wasthen transferred into the composite coordinate systemusing the method outlined in section 3. Figure 6a showsthe location of the convective region in the compositeframework. The outer curve encloses the area formedby the union of all the transferred geographic boundaries. The composite framework extended slightly beyond the northern end of the

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D. K. Purnell, M. J. Revell, and P. N. McGavin

computations performed by themodel in the performance tests of section 5 is shownby an example simulation on a 5000 km x 3500 kmgrid with 18 layers vertically and a maximum resolution of 30 km over New Zealand. Figure 1 showsstreamlines at an altitude of 300 m and Fig. 2 the projection of wind vectors onto a cross section along theeast coast of New Zealand. The location of this crosssection is marked XY on Fig. 3, which shows the topography and location of grid points in a smaller boxnear New Zealand. A

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Kai-Hon Lau and Ngar-Cheung Lau

scales ranging from 3 to $ days are noted in the power spectra for these locations. The lag-correlation and regression statistics of tropical fluctuations with synoptic time scales are examined.Strong teleeonnectivity and temporal coherence are found over all of the active sites with enhanced vorticityvariance, as well as over the western Atlantic/Caribbean and the Indochinese Peninsula. These results indicatethat a substantial amount of synoptic scale variability in the tropics is associated with

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heading Table ofvations in the beginning the mon 8 y departures werethe observing stations that took place during t f e 29not known. It is fairly in the last respect after 1892, although strictly the homogeneity of therecord is not as great e desired. The exigen- cies of the service at times made it necescary to discon- tinue an o b s e m g station or to remove It a short dls- tance from its oripnal location. Most of the chan es inyears considered were of that order. The original sta- -1 This is a

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James P. McGuirk and Donald A. Douglas

patterns, the relations are developed from an SSW climatology and not from ablocking climatology. The results described herein forma subset of the weather anomalies which occur withblocking, but only blocking coupled with SSW. Thedifference is that blocking, in general, occurs severaltimes per year with widely varying locations and timescales and can be described in terms of only tropospheric mechanisms (Charney and Straus, 1980, forexample), whereas SSW occurs less frequently thanonce every two years

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