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120 WEATHER AND FORECASTING VOLUME?FORECASTER'S FORUMOn the Use of Mesoscale and Cloud-Scale Models in Operational ForecastingHAROLD E. BROOKS, CHARLES A. BOSWELL III, AND ROBERT A. MADDOXNOAA /National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma27 August 1991 and 8 November 1991 In the near future, the technological capability will be available to use mesoscale and cloud
120 WEATHER AND FORECASTING VOLUME?FORECASTER'S FORUMOn the Use of Mesoscale and Cloud-Scale Models in Operational ForecastingHAROLD E. BROOKS, CHARLES A. BOSWELL III, AND ROBERT A. MADDOXNOAA /National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma27 August 1991 and 8 November 1991 In the near future, the technological capability will be available to use mesoscale and cloud
the Advanced Research version (ARW) of the next-generation mesoscale Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF) currently being developed and employed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research ( Skamarock et al. 2005 ). Two model domains coupled through two-way nesting are employed; the fine (coarse) domain has a horizontal grid spacing of 4.5 (13.5) km covering areas of 2700 × 2400 (8100 × 7200) km 2 . The model has 35 vertical levels with physics configurations that are the same as those
the Advanced Research version (ARW) of the next-generation mesoscale Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF) currently being developed and employed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research ( Skamarock et al. 2005 ). Two model domains coupled through two-way nesting are employed; the fine (coarse) domain has a horizontal grid spacing of 4.5 (13.5) km covering areas of 2700 × 2400 (8100 × 7200) km 2 . The model has 35 vertical levels with physics configurations that are the same as those
complicated in complex terrain. Liu et al. (2008) conducted an interrange comparison of the model analyses and forecasts of five U.S. Army test and evaluation command ranges over a 5-yr period. They concluded that forecast errors vary from range to range and season to season. They also found that larger errors are typically associated with complex terrain. Zhong and Fast (2003) compared three mesoscale numerical models and evaluated the simulations over the Salt Lake Valley for cases influenced by
complicated in complex terrain. Liu et al. (2008) conducted an interrange comparison of the model analyses and forecasts of five U.S. Army test and evaluation command ranges over a 5-yr period. They concluded that forecast errors vary from range to range and season to season. They also found that larger errors are typically associated with complex terrain. Zhong and Fast (2003) compared three mesoscale numerical models and evaluated the simulations over the Salt Lake Valley for cases influenced by
LAPS within the OWSS was important. For the first time, a mesoscale forecast model initialized with comparably high-resolution analyses was implemented in an operational environment using technology representative of that planned for NWS forecast offices in the next several years. The LAPS forecasts were produced by the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) ( Pielke et al. 1992 ; Walko et al. 1995 ) developed at Colorado State University. The operational forecaster interactively selected
LAPS within the OWSS was important. For the first time, a mesoscale forecast model initialized with comparably high-resolution analyses was implemented in an operational environment using technology representative of that planned for NWS forecast offices in the next several years. The LAPS forecasts were produced by the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) ( Pielke et al. 1992 ; Walko et al. 1995 ) developed at Colorado State University. The operational forecaster interactively selected
. 2010 , 2013 ), the cases are still limited to ascertaining the effects of storm-induced sea surface cooling on TC intensity forecast skill in the vicinity of Japan. In this study, we conduct a large number of 3-day forecast experiments around Japan in order to obtain a reliable TC intensity forecast assessment. This is achieved by running a JMA nonhydrostatic atmospheric mesoscale model (AMSM) that is similar to an operational regional model and an atmosphere–ocean coupled mesoscale model (CMSM
. 2010 , 2013 ), the cases are still limited to ascertaining the effects of storm-induced sea surface cooling on TC intensity forecast skill in the vicinity of Japan. In this study, we conduct a large number of 3-day forecast experiments around Japan in order to obtain a reliable TC intensity forecast assessment. This is achieved by running a JMA nonhydrostatic atmospheric mesoscale model (AMSM) that is similar to an operational regional model and an atmosphere–ocean coupled mesoscale model (CMSM
events, and important questions remain. What is the relative importance of surface fluxes and downslope flow in thermal trough formation and evolution? Does advection play a significant role? Such issues will be addressed in this paper. Specifically, this manuscript will describe the synoptic and mesoscale evolution of a representative WCTT event that occurred on 13–16 May 2007 using observations and simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. This event is similar to the
events, and important questions remain. What is the relative importance of surface fluxes and downslope flow in thermal trough formation and evolution? Does advection play a significant role? Such issues will be addressed in this paper. Specifically, this manuscript will describe the synoptic and mesoscale evolution of a representative WCTT event that occurred on 13–16 May 2007 using observations and simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. This event is similar to the
) and Mesoscale Eta Models (MESO; Black 1994 ), the National Center for Environmental Prediction’s (NCEP’s) most complex synoptic model and first mesoscale model, respectively, produce high-resolution output at 30–50 vertical levels and at every forecast hour in the form of soundings (or“profiles”). Therefore, the fine time and spatial resolutions of the model output make possible operational prediction of mesoscale features unlike what has been possible previously. The forecasting problem is how
) and Mesoscale Eta Models (MESO; Black 1994 ), the National Center for Environmental Prediction’s (NCEP’s) most complex synoptic model and first mesoscale model, respectively, produce high-resolution output at 30–50 vertical levels and at every forecast hour in the form of soundings (or“profiles”). Therefore, the fine time and spatial resolutions of the model output make possible operational prediction of mesoscale features unlike what has been possible previously. The forecasting problem is how
1. Introduction Extreme precipitation, and the flooding and flash flooding it can cause, remains a particularly challenging prediction problem for numerical models and human forecasters (e.g., Fritsch and Carbone 2004 ; Novak et al. 2011 ). This stems in part from the small-scale, chaotic nature of the deep convection that is responsible for producing the heavy rainfall (e.g., Zhang et al. 2003 ) and the insufficient density of observations at the mesoscale (e.g., Dabberdt et al. 2005
1. Introduction Extreme precipitation, and the flooding and flash flooding it can cause, remains a particularly challenging prediction problem for numerical models and human forecasters (e.g., Fritsch and Carbone 2004 ; Novak et al. 2011 ). This stems in part from the small-scale, chaotic nature of the deep convection that is responsible for producing the heavy rainfall (e.g., Zhang et al. 2003 ) and the insufficient density of observations at the mesoscale (e.g., Dabberdt et al. 2005
1. Introduction New Zealand’s extreme orography is not well resolved in today’s generation of global models but has a profound effect on the country’s weather ( Wratt et al. 1996 ). Consequently there is a natural tendency to investigate the value that can be added to the forecasting process by operational runs of mesoscale models forced by analyses and forecasts from global numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers. These mesoscale runs are expected to provide improved guidance
1. Introduction New Zealand’s extreme orography is not well resolved in today’s generation of global models but has a profound effect on the country’s weather ( Wratt et al. 1996 ). Consequently there is a natural tendency to investigate the value that can be added to the forecasting process by operational runs of mesoscale models forced by analyses and forecasts from global numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers. These mesoscale runs are expected to provide improved guidance
forecasts for Europe . Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 94 , 1393 – 1405 , https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00099.1 . 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00099.1 Rutledge , S. A. , and P. V. Hobbs , 1983 : The mesoscale and microscale structure of organization of clouds and precipitation in midlatitude cyclones. VIII: A model for the “seeder-feeder” process in warm-frontal rainbands . J. Atmos. Sci. , 40 , 1185 – 1206 , https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1983)040<1185:TMAMSA>2.0.CO;2 . 10
forecasts for Europe . Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 94 , 1393 – 1405 , https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00099.1 . 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00099.1 Rutledge , S. A. , and P. V. Hobbs , 1983 : The mesoscale and microscale structure of organization of clouds and precipitation in midlatitude cyclones. VIII: A model for the “seeder-feeder” process in warm-frontal rainbands . J. Atmos. Sci. , 40 , 1185 – 1206 , https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1983)040<1185:TMAMSA>2.0.CO;2 . 10
