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Tom H. Durrant, Diana J. M. Greenslade, Ian Simmonds, and Frank Woodcock

1. Introduction Marine winds are an important output of modern operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. They provide input to marine forecasts and warning systems, with their accuracy having direct implications for marine safety. The calculation of air–sea fluxes also relies directly on marine winds, in turn influencing estimates of heat and moisture fluxes within atmospheric models. The accuracy of systems that subsequently use these outputs such as wind energy forecast systems

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Sim D. Aberson

12–60-h forecasts) in 15 cases from 1982 to 1995 in the primary numerical guidance for the National Hurricane Center (NHC) official track forecasts ( Burpee et al. 1996 ). These track improvements were as large as the NHC official forecast improvements obtained during the previous 20–25 yr and suggested that operational missions would be effective in reducing numerical track forecast errors. In 1996, NOAA procured a Gulfstream IV-SP (G-IV) jet aircraft, and put it to use in operational “synoptic

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K. F. Dewey

APRIL 1979 K.F. DEWEY 421Lake Erie Induced Mesosystems--An Operational Forecast Model K. F. DEWEYClimatology Program, University of Nebraska, Lincoln 68588(Manuscript received 20 September 1978, in final form 8 January 1979)ABSTRACT All Lake Erie lake-effect days for a 10-year period prior to the 1976-77 snowfall season were utilized in the development of an operational

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Domingo Muñoz-Esparza and Robert Sharman

Guidance (GTG) system, originally devised by Sharman et al. (2006) , that is run operationally for public use by NOAA’s National Weather Service ( ). GTG uses an ensemble average that is based on an optimum combination of turbulence diagnostics that has been recently extended by ( Sharman and Pearson 2017 ) to 1) provide forecasts at all flight altitudes from surface to flight level (FL) 500 (50 000 ft; 1 ft = 30.48 cm), 2) explicitly provide forecasts of

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Burkely T. Gallo, Adam J. Clark, Israel Jirak, John S. Kain, Steven J. Weiss, Michael Coniglio, Kent Knopfmeier, James Correia Jr., Christopher J. Melick, Christopher D. Karstens, Eswar Iyer, Andrew R. Dean, Ming Xue, Fanyou Kong, Youngsun Jung, Feifei Shen, Kevin W. Thomas, Keith Brewster, Derek Stratman, Gregory W. Carbin, William Line, Rebecca Adams-Selin, and Steve Willington

severe thunderstorm forecasting. The real-time SFE takes place during the spring severe weather season, providing realistic operational pressure for participants as each day presents a unique set of conditions regarding severe weather potential. Formal SFEs began in 2000; Kain et al. (2003) emphasize that collaboration is the crux of the SFEs, noting that “the interaction between forecasters and numerical modelers was the most rewarding part of (the) Spring Program.” This collaboration has created

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Siebren de Haan, Gert-Jan Marseille, Paul de Valk, and John de Vries

1. Introduction In this paper we assess the impact of ocean surface wind observations from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) in the operational Royal Netherlands Meteorological Office (KNMI) High-Resolution Limited-Area Model (HIRLAM) setting ( Unden 2002 ). HIRLAM is a consortium of European meteorological institutes for cooperative research with the aim of developing and maintaining a short-range weather forecasting system for operational use by the participating meteorological institutes

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Ashok Kumar, Parvinder Maini, and S. V. Singh

, namely, (i) the perfect prog method (PPM) and (ii) the model output statistics (MOS), depending upon whether the observed or numerically predicted circulation is used in development of concurrent empirical relationships. Currently, a general circulation model with T-80 resolution is operational at NCMRWF. The use of SI methods for generating probability of precipitation (PoP) and yes/no forecasts over 10 stations during summer monsoon season has been attempted in this study. These stations are widely

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Charles R. Sampson, James S. Goerss, John A. Knaff, Brian R. Strahl, Edward M. Fukada, and Efren A. Serra

models (e.g., Tallapragada et al. 2014 ; Cangialosi and Landsea 2016 ; Knaff et al. 2017 ), consensus forecasts ( SK15 ), and forecasts from the operational centers ( Knaff and Sampson 2015 ). As real-time forecaster estimates of R34 become more accurate, they contribute to improvements in real-time intensity and structure guidance forecasts [ Bender et al. (2017) and Knaff et al. (2017) , respectively], which then contribute to official forecasts and postprocessed guidance that are so critical

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Karl W. Hoppel, Stephen D. Eckermann, Lawrence Coy, Gerald E. Nedoluha, Douglas R. Allen, Steven D. Swadley, and Nancy L. Baker

stratospheric meteorological disturbances have unexpectedly large impacts on space weather and its prediction (e.g., Goncharenko et al. 2010 ). Finally, there are emerging defense and civilian technologies that operate in the “near space” environment at altitudes ~20–100 km and require forecast guidance for their operations. The Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) developed an advanced-level physics, high-altitude (ALPHA) prototype of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) that

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Steven M. Lazarus, Corey G. Calvert, Michael E. Splitt, Pablo Santos, David W. Sharp, Peter F. Blottman, and Scott M. Spratt

near-infrared-based satellite sensors can consistently provide reliable radiances from which bulk (i.e., upper meter) SST estimates are derived. However, because operational analysis systems generally require contiguous (i.e., no missing data) gridded first-guess fields, some form of compositing is essential. Various compositing techniques may leverage either previous analyses or forecasts, or both. One common approach is a method whereby the warmest pixel or average of the warmest pixels (within a

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