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Mark A. Lander and Michael D. Angove

24-h intensity was underforecast by anywhere from 20 to 40 kt (21 m s −1 ); and the 48-h intensity was underforecast by as much as 65 kt (33 m s −1 ). 4) Supertyphoon Oscar (17W) Reasons for selection: Oscar was the largest TC of 1995, and a “digital Dvorak” algorithm was applied to hourly infrared imagery. Forming at the eastern end of a monsoon trough, which later became reverse oriented, Oscar became a large TC ( Fig. 17 ). Oscar also became a very intense TC

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Mark A. Lander, Eric J. Trehubenko, and Charles P. Guard

-estimated intensity that was best illustrated in its digital Dvorak (DD) time series. The DD algorithm—developed by R. Zehr (1997, personal communication) and programmed by G. Schaeffer (1997, personal communication)—adapts the rules of the Dvorak satellite TC intensity estimation techniques as subjectively applied to enhanced infrared imagery ( Dvorak 1984 ) in order to arrive at an objective T number, or “digital Dvorak” (DD) number. Infrared imagery is available hourly from the Japanese Geostationary

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James L. Franklin, Lixion A. Avila, John L. Beven II, Miles B. Lawrence, Richard J. Pasch, and Stacy R. Stewart

there were no in situ observations to verify the satellite intensity estimates, and the apparent development rate violated the constraints built into the Dvorak (1984) technique. Thus, there is considerable uncertainty regarding the exact deepening rates and peak intensity of these two storms. The estimate of Elida's peak intensity (140 kt) was based largely on an objective Dvorak algorithm developed by the University of Wisconsin ( Velden et al. 1998 ), which indicated a peak intensity of 138 kt

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Mark A. Lander and Charles P. Guard

an algorithm installed on the image-processing equipment of the JTWC. Warning intensity is shown by open circles. The 4.5 days of supertyphoon intensity for Joan [≥130 kt (67 m s −1 )] is a record. Note also the near-simultaneous peak of these two typhoons Fig . 13. A view of Paka from Guam's NEXRAD WSR-88D at 0712 UTC 16 Dec 1997. The image shows Paka with concentric eyewalls. The outer eyewall is making its way across the island of Guam while the inner eyewall is in the process of collapsing as

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James L. Franklin, Richard J. Pasch, Lixion A. Avila, John L. Beven II, Miles B. Lawrence, Stacy R. Stewart, and Eric S. Blake

. Wea. Forecasting , 18 , 32 – 44 . Hawkins , J. D. , T. F. Lee , J. Turk , C. Sampson , F. J. Kent , and K. Richardson , 2001 : Real-time Internet distribution of satellite products for tropical cyclone reconnaissance. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 82 , 567 – 578 . Herndon , D. C. , and C. Velden , 2004 : Upgrades to the UW-CIMSS AMSU-based tropical cyclone intensity estimation algorithm. Preprints, 26th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Miami, FL, Amer

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Michael J. Brennan, Richard D. Knabb, Michelle Mainelli, and Todd B. Kimberlain

– 220 . DeMaria , M. , J. A. Knaff , and J. Kaplan , 2006 : On the decay of tropical cyclone winds crossing narrow landmasses. J. Appl. Meteor. , 45 , 491 – 499 . Demuth , J. L. , M. DeMaria , and J. A. Knaff , 2006 : Improvement of Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit tropical cyclone intensity and size estimation algorithms. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol. , 45 , 1573 – 1581 . Dvorak , V. E. , 1984 : Tropical cyclone intensity analysis using satellite data. NOAA Tech. Rep

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James L. Franklin and Daniel P. Brown

to the UW-CIMSS AMSU-based tropical cyclone intensity estimation algorithm. Preprints, 26th Conf. on Hurricane and Tropical Meteorology, Miami, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 118–119 . Hock , T. F. , and J. L. Franklin , 1999 : The NCAR GPS dropwindsonde. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 80 , 407 – 420 . Jarvinen , B. R. , and C. J. Neumann , 1979 : Statistical forecasts of tropical cyclone intensity for the North Atlantic basin. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS NHC-10, 22 pp . Kaplan , J. , and M

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John L. Beven II, Lixion A. Avila, Eric S. Blake, Daniel P. Brown, James L. Franklin, Richard D. Knabb, Richard J. Pasch, Jamie R. Rhome, and Stacy R. Stewart

tropical cyclone reconnaissance. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 82 , 567 – 578 . Hebert , P. J. , and K. O. Poteat , 1975 : A satellite classification technique for subtropical cyclones. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS SR-83, U.S. Department of Commerce, National Weather Service, Fort Worth, TX, 25 pp . Herndon , D. C. , and C. Velden , 2004 : Upgrades to the UW-CIMSS AMSU-based tropical cyclone intensity estimation algorithm. Preprints, 26th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Miami, FL

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