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Brian A. Colle, Zhenhai Zhang, Kelly A. Lombardo, Edmund Chang, Ping Liu, and Minghua Zhang

centroid of these points is found for each cluster so that each cluster is represented by a single feature point. To determine the correspondence between the feature points, a constrained optimization of a cost function is used (based on the algorithm of Salari and Sethi 1990 ). Those identified storms are filtered to retain only those that last at least 24 h and move farther than 1000 km over their lifetime. Hodges et al. (2011) used 48 h as a threshold, but we found it reduced the number of

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Suzana J. Camargo

). Tracking TC-like storms in the models using the Camargo and Zebiak (2002) algorithm requires 6-hourly environmental variables (viz., vorticity at 850 hPa, temperature and winds on various pressure levels, and surface pressure), and this requirement was the main restriction in our model choices since not all models provided the necessary variables at this output frequency at the time of our analysis. Furthermore, the data had to be accessible for specific scenarios [more details in Taylor et al

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Edmund K. M. Chang

objective tracking algorithms (e.g., Murray and Simmonds 1991 ; Hodges 1999 ; and many others), an increasing number of studies have made use of this approach (e.g., Hoskins and Hodges 2002 ). Nevertheless, cyclone statistics can depend on the details of the tracking algorithm ( Raible et al. 2008 ; Ulbrich et al. 2009 ), but efforts are being made to intercompare the different algorithms in order to quantify such dependencies ( Neu et al. 2013 ). The alternative definition making use of bandpass

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Eric D. Maloney, Suzana J. Camargo, Edmund Chang, Brian Colle, Rong Fu, Kerrie L. Geil, Qi Hu, Xianan Jiang, Nathaniel Johnson, Kristopher B. Karnauskas, James Kinter, Benjamin Kirtman, Sanjiv Kumar, Baird Langenbrunner, Kelly Lombardo, Lindsey N. Long, Annarita Mariotti, Joyce E. Meyerson, Kingtse C. Mo, J. David Neelin, Zaitao Pan, Richard Seager, Yolande Serra, Anji Seth, Justin Sheffield, Julienne Stroeve, Jeanne Thibeault, Shang-Ping Xie, Chunzai Wang, Bruce Wyman, and Ming Zhao

, a simple algorithm for quantifying the MSD strength is used that does not assume a priori which months are climatological maxima and which months constitute the MSD ( Karnauskas et al. 2013 ). Consistent with the month-by-month rainfall projections, the CMIP5 core MEM provides a very robust projection of a stronger MSD for most regions that experience an MSD today ( Fig. 21 ). The maximum MSD increases from ~2.5 mm day −1 to ~(3–4) mm day −1 in the RCP4.5 forcing experiment. The peak amplitude

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Justin Sheffield, Suzana J. Camargo, Rong Fu, Qi Hu, Xianan Jiang, Nathaniel Johnson, Kristopher B. Karnauskas, Seon Tae Kim, Jim Kinter, Sanjiv Kumar, Baird Langenbrunner, Eric Maloney, Annarita Mariotti, Joyce E. Meyerson, J. David Neelin, Sumant Nigam, Zaitao Pan, Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas, Richard Seager, Yolande L. Serra, De-Zheng Sun, Chunzai Wang, Shang-Ping Xie, Jin-Yi Yu, Tao Zhang, and Ming Zhao

precipitation and the MSD is evaluated. We evaluate 23 CMIP5 models against the TMPA, GPCP, and UNAM observational datasets. A simple algorithm for detecting and quantifying the climatological MSD is used that does not assume a priori which months are maxima and which months constitute the MSD ( Karnauskas et al. 2012 ). Figure 3 shows the observational and CMIP5 estimates of the MSD and highlights the large uncertainties in its spatial distribution among observational datasets. The CMIP5 multimodel

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Leila M. V. Carvalho and Charles Jones

-Ferreira , R. P. Barnhill , and S. W. Nesbitt , 2011 : Regional contrasts of mesoscale convective system structure prior to and during monsoon onset across South America . J. Climate , 24 , 3753 – 3763 . Rodionov , S. N. , 2004 : A sequential algorithm for testing climate regime shifts . Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L09204, doi:10.1029/2004GL019448. Ropelewski , C. F. , D. S. Gutzler , R. W. Higgins , and C. R. Mechoso , 2005 : The North American monsoon system. WMO Tech Doc. TD

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Gabriel A. Vecchi, Rym Msadek, Whit Anderson, You-Soon Chang, Thomas Delworth, Keith Dixon, Rich Gudgel, Anthony Rosati, Bill Stern, Gabriele Villarini, Andrew Wittenberg, Xiasong Yang, Fanrong Zeng, Rong Zhang, and Shaoqing Zhang

. Latif , M. , N. Keenlyside , and J. Bader , 2007 : Tropical sea surface temperature, vertical wind shear, and hurricane development . Geophys. Res. Lett. , 34 , L01710 , doi:10.1029/2006GL027969 . Li , S. , and R. Lund , 2012 : Multiple changepoint detection via genetic algorithms . J. Climate , 25 , 674 – 686 . MacAdie , C. J. , C. W. Landsea , C. J. Neumann , J. E. David , E. Blake , and G. R. Hammer , 2009 : Tropical cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean

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