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Antonietta Capotondi and Michael A. Alexander

)–type simulations performed with the same model (e.g., Schubert et al. 2004a ; Seager et al. 2005 ) are found across a suite of fully coupled climate models. The IPCC models differ in both spatial resolution and physical parameterizations in each of their component models but have been run in similar configurations and with similar anthropogenic forcing. For this study we will focus on the preindustrial control integrations (PICNTRL) whose multicentury duration allows a better characterization of multiyear

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Bradfield Lyon

based on runs forced with the A1B greenhouse gas scenario were utilized. The 20C3M simulations incorporate known natural and anthropogenic forcings including aerosols and volcanoes as well as major greenhouse gas concentrations. Several model fields were employed including daily maximum temperature data for identifying heat waves and monthly precipitation for analysis of drought. It is beyond the scope of this paper to examine the behavior of heat waves (and drought) across all the CMIP3 models. The

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Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas and Sumant Nigam

regional hydroclimate research has become an issue of fundamental interest. Carbon dioxide is the most important greenhouse gas that fuels the discussion of anthropogenic climate change. Increased burning of fossil fuels and deforestation have caused carbon dioxide concentrations to increase globally in the twentieth century. In an effort to simulate past, present, and future climates under the stress of growing greenhouse concentrations, the World Meteorological Organization through the

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Caio A. S. Coelho and Lisa Goddard

variability is riding on top of a changing mean climate that is attributable to anthropogenic climate change. This means that, even if the climate variability is unchanged, the risks of a predefined event such as drought (i.e., precipitation below a certain value) will change. Often the average answer from a set of predictions is taken as the net forecast. If a set of forecasts all agree in predicting no change, the net forecast is for no change. If a set of forecasts all disagree such that their average

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Yochanan Kushnir, Richard Seager, Mingfang Ting, Naomi Naik, and Jennifer Nakamura

1. Introduction The nature and cause of North American hydroclimate variability is a subject of heightened concern because of the recent droughts 1 in the American West 2 and in northern Mexico ( Seager 2007 , 2009 ) and because projections of anthropogenic influence on the climate of the twenty-first century indicate a turn toward increasing aridity there ( Seager et al. 2007 ). The latter finding, based on output from climate models that participated in the Intergovernmental Panel on

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