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Hiroyuki Murakami, Pang-Chi Hsu, Osamu Arakawa, and Tim Li

1. Introduction The effects of anthropogenic warming on tropical cyclone (TC) activity are critical for estimating the future costs of climate-related socioeconomic impacts. Recently, many studies have attempted to address future changes in TC activity using high-resolution atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) (e.g., Zhao et al. 2009 ; Bender et al. 2010 ; Murakami et al. 2012b ; Knutson et al. 2013 ), atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) (e.g., Yokoi et al

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John G. Dwyer, Suzana J. Camargo, Adam H. Sobel, Michela Biasutti, Kerry A. Emanuel, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Ming Zhao, and Michael K. Tippett

to change due to increased greenhouse gases and other anthropogenic effects and relate these changes to changes in environmental characteristics, using both the downscaling model and HiRAM forced with CMIP3 and CMIP5 data. In the following section we describe the data and explain the methods we use. In section 3 , we describe the twentieth-century seasonal cycles in HiRAM and the downscaling model and compare them with observations. In sections 4 and 5 we describe the projected changes in

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Christina M. Patricola, R. Saravanan, and Ping Chang

; Chang et al. 2006 ). Northern tropical Atlantic SST may also be affected by the North Atlantic Oscillation ( Mo and Häkkinen 2001 ; Czaja et al. 2002 ), the AMO ( Vimont and Kossin 2007 ), anthropogenic warming, and sulfate and volcanic aerosols ( Mann and Emanuel 2006 ; Dunstone et al. 2013 ). Therefore, while this may lead to some tendency for preferred ENSO–AMM combinations, it does not preclude the occurrence of each combination. In fact, each ENSO–AMM pair was observed during at least three

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Chao Wang and Liguang Wu

wind, SST, and precipitation data of the three experiments [historical and representative concentration pathway 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) experiments] from CMIP5 models are used in this study. The historical experiment is forced by observed conditions, including changes in atmospheric composition, solar forcing, natural or anthropogenic aerosols, and so on. The radiative forcing in the RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) experiments stabilizes at 4.5 (8.5) W m −2 in 2100 ( Taylor et al. 2012 ). The output of

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Michael Wehner, Prabhat, Kevin A. Reed, Dáithí Stone, William D. Collins, and Julio Bacmeister

uniform increased SST and elevated CO 2 change separately lead to a global reduction in tropical storm frequency. However, in the results presented here, the CO 2 effect is substantially larger than the SST effect whereas in the other models the effects were roughly equal. A simple spatially uniform increase in SST is not a realistic projection of the future anthropogenic climate change. The spatial structure of projected future SSTs varies significantly across the CMIP5 models, even for a similar

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Hamish A. Ramsay, Savin S. Chand, and Suzana J. Camargo

displacement of hundreds of thousands of people, around 15 fatalities, and a recovery budget of 268.4 million (U.S. dollars; UNESCO 2015 ). The effects of climate change on TCs in the Southern Hemisphere have received relatively less attention in the scientific literature compared to some other regions of the world (most notably, the North Atlantic region) despite the vulnerability of the Southern Hemisphere. That a warming climate will likely result in a small decrease in overall TC frequency but a small

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Anne S. Daloz, S. J. Camargo, J. P. Kossin, K. Emanuel, M. Horn, J. A. Jonas, D. Kim, T. LaRow, Y.-K. Lim, C. M. Patricola, M. Roberts, E. Scoccimarro, D. Shaevitz, P. L. Vidale, H. Wang, M. Wehner, and M. Zhao

some drawbacks such as the absence of statistics of potential initiating disturbances (e.g., African easterly waves). This point will be further discussed in the article. Here we compare the tracks obtained by downscaling the large-scale variables simulated by four of the climate models analyzed in the first part of the study. Finally, simple future climate projections are examined. The independent and combined effects of an increase in CO 2 and a uniform warming of SST are considered. Previous

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Sarah Strazzo, James B. Elsner, Timothy LaRow, Daniel J. Halperin, and Ming Zhao

size. For example, we might expect larger biases from lattices composed of smaller hexagons. To see the effects of grid resolution, we repeat this process for grids with per-hexagon areas of 14.6 × 10 5 , 9.70 × 10 5 , 7.28 × 10 5 (the original grid area), 4.85 × 10 5 , and 3.64 × 10 5 km 2 . The bias calculations, broken down by ocean basin and gridcell area, are presented with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) in Table 2 . The CIs are based on the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the 100 bias

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Suzana J. Camargo, Michael K. Tippett, Adam H. Sobel, Gabriel A. Vecchi, and Ming Zhao

. Bell , R. , J. Strachan , P. L. Vidale , K. Hodges , and M. Roberts , 2013 : Response of tropical cyclones to idealized climate change experiments in a global high-resolution coupled general circulation model . J. Climate , 26 , 7966 – 7980 , doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00749.1 . Bender , M. A. , T. R. Knutson , R. E. Tuleya , J. J. Sirutis , G. A. Vecchi , S. T. Garner , and I. M. Held , 2010 : Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense

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Malcolm J. Roberts, Pier Luigi Vidale, Matthew S. Mizielinski, Marie-Estelle Demory, Reinhard Schiemann, Jane Strachan, Kevin Hodges, Ray Bell, and Joanne Camp

pronounced at N216 and N512 resolutions, with between 5% and 10% decrease in the weakest storms and small increases at higher intensities. However, these results should be treated with caution, given the prescribed, patterned future SST used here and the lack of coupling to the ocean, which can have important effects ( Bell et al. 2013 ). Since the FC SST forcing consists of the addition of a repeating annual cycle, one might expect that the NA interannual variability of TCs in the FC would be similar to

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