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M. F. P. Bierkens and L. P. H. van Beek

components of the climate system, such as sea surface temperature (SST) and related large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns ( Cullen et al. 2002 ; Peterson et al. 2002 ; Tootle et al. 2005 ). In Europe, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is considered to be the strongest driver of interyear climate variability ( Hurrell and van Loon 1997 ; Appenzeller et al. 1998 ) and the main factor explaining anomalies in winter precipitation and temperature ( Hurrell 1995 ). Owing to the connection between

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