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Andreas Schlueter, Andreas H. Fink, and Peter Knippertz

interact with the extratropical circulation. Predictability in the extratropics on the intraseasonal time scale largely originates from the tropics ( Waliser et al. 2003 ; Vitart and Robertson 2018 ). The MJO is linked to several intraseasonal modes of variability, including the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) ( Walker and Bliss 1932 ), the Arctic Oscillation (AO) ( Thompson and Wallace 1998 ), and the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern ( Wallace and Gutzler 1981 ). A review of intraseasonal

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Joaquim G. Pinto, Florian Pantillon, Patrick Ludwig, Madeleine-Sophie Déroche, Giovanni Leoncini, Christoph C. Raible, Len C. Shaffrey, and David B. Stephenson

workshop was made possible thanks to support from the AXA Research Fund and the Transregional Collaborative Research Center SFB/TRR 165 “Waves to Weather” funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG). REFERENCES Bloomfield , H. C. , L. C. Shaffrey , K. I. Hodges , and P. L. Vidale , 2018 : A critical assessment of the long-term changes in the wintertime surface Arctic Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere storminess in the ERA20C reanalysis . Environ. Res. Lett. , 13 , 094004 , https

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Andreas Schäfler, George Craig, Heini Wernli, Philippe Arbogast, James D. Doyle, Ron McTaggart-Cowan, John Methven, Gwendal Rivière, Felix Ament, Maxi Boettcher, Martina Bramberger, Quitterie Cazenave, Richard Cotton, Susanne Crewell, Julien Delanoë, Andreas Dörnbrack, André Ehrlich, Florian Ewald, Andreas Fix, Christian M. Grams, Suzanne L. Gray, Hans Grob, Silke Groß, Martin Hagen, Ben Harvey, Lutz Hirsch, Marek Jacob, Tobias Kölling, Heike Konow, Christian Lemmerz, Oliver Lux, Linus Magnusson, Bernhard Mayer, Mario Mech, Richard Moore, Jacques Pelon, Julian Quinting, Stephan Rahm, Markus Rapp, Marc Rautenhaus, Oliver Reitebuch, Carolyn A. Reynolds, Harald Sodemann, Thomas Spengler, Geraint Vaughan, Manfred Wendisch, Martin Wirth, Benjamin Witschas, Kevin Wolf, and Tobias Zinner

North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) recurving poleward into midlatitudes and undergoing extratropical transition (ET), which is a process known to be associated with low predictability ( Harr et al. 2000 ). Coherent mesoscale depressions of the tropopause, known as tropopause polar vortices (TPVs; Cavallo and Hakim 2010 ; Kew et al. 2010 ), can disturb the jet stream if they move equatorward from the Arctic. NAWDEX contributes to the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and its High Impact

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Volkmar Wirth, Michael Riemer, Edmund K. M. Chang, and Olivia Martius

with large-scale flow regimes such as ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation ( Souders et al. 2014b ). Fig . 12. The probability of occurrence of significant (exceeding a lower-amplitude threshold, color shading) and extreme (exceeding a higher-amplitude threshold, contours every 0.5% beginning at 1.0%, in black) RWPs on both hemispheres. [The figure is taken from Fig. 2 of Souders et al. (2014b) .] Although there is a fair amount of agreement between the RWP object climatologies derived from different

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