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Rolf H. Langland, Christopher Velden, Patricia M. Pauley, and Howard Berger

observations” to improve numerical forecasts of significant weather events, including TCs, has been examined in a series of field programs ( Langland 2005 provides an overview of targeting programs and references). The process of targeted observing for the atmosphere involves methods to identify “sensitive” locations of the atmosphere in which addition of special observations is expected to improve the analysis and forecast of a weather event ( Majumdar et al. 2006 ; Wu et al. 2007a ). The special

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Sim D. Aberson

correct synoptic environment, a positive correlation between track and intensity impacts may be expected. Because GFS intensity forecasts are generally poor, and forecast improvements are due mostly to improved intensity initialization, this correlation in the GFS is very small. Correlations between the GFDL model track and intensity forecast improvements are negative at most forecast times, and are <−0.25 for 98–120-h forecasts. This may be due to small differences in land interactions close to

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