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Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas and Sumant Nigam

simulations by the CCM3 and NSIPP-1 models, the mean of the regressions is displayed for each model. Summer precipitation under the nonlinear warming Trend influence ( Fig. 4 ) shows some common results between observations and simulations. Observations indicate that Trend produces dry conditions over the central and eastern seaboard regions of the United States and pluvial conditions in the southern half of Mexico. While all models capture the dry conditions over the central United States, the drying of

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Rachel R. McCrary and David A. Randall

atmosphere to be decoupled in HadCM3 ( Koster et al. 2004 , 2006 ). Lawrence and Slingo (2005) have studied the land surface of HadCM3 in detail and argue that the weak soil moisture–precipitation feedback in HadAM3 (the atmospheric component of HadCM3) is related to one of two factors, either how the boundary layer adjusts to changes in surface forcing (i.e., how the boundary layer adjusts to changes in latent and sensible heat fluxes) or how moist convection responds to boundary layer conditions (i

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Kirsten L. Findell and Thomas L. Delworth

this trend pattern will be discussed in section 4e . These anomalies were then added to the climatological seasonal cycle of SST and used as the new boundary condition of the model’s simulation. b. Experimental design Each modeling group ran a series of eight experiments with all possible combinations of a warm and cold Pacific and Atlantic forcing in addition to the control experiment ( Table 1 ). When referring to these combination experiments, we will use the notation of Table 1 : for example

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Siegfried Schubert, David Gutzler, Hailan Wang, Aiguo Dai, Tom Delworth, Clara Deser, Kirsten Findell, Rong Fu, Wayne Higgins, Martin Hoerling, Ben Kirtman, Randal Koster, Arun Kumar, David Legler, Dennis Lettenmaier, Bradfield Lyon, Victor Magana, Kingtse Mo, Sumant Nigam, Philip Pegion, Adam Phillips, Roger Pulwarty, David Rind, Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas, Jae Schemm, Richard Seager, Ronald Stewart, Max Suarez, Jozef Syktus, Mingfang Ting, Chunzai Wang, Scott Weaver, and Ning Zeng

precipitation responses to the PwAn and PcAn SST patterns. While all of the models show a tendency for wet conditions in response to PwAn forcing and dry conditions for the PcAn forcing, there are considerable differences among the models. For example, the NSIPP-1 response tends to be relatively localized over the central Great Plains (GP). On the other hand, the largest GFS response occurs along the southern and western tier of the states, while the other models tend to show more widespread precipitation

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Yochanan Kushnir, Richard Seager, Mingfang Ting, Naomi Naik, and Jennifer Nakamura

anomalously wet (dry) winters over North America during El Niño (La Niña) conditions, particularly in the western and southern parts of the country. In the summer, the atmospheric circulation anomalies are weaker, yet similar in phase, and precipitation is probably also affected by changes in the local soil moisture availability, which is carried over from the preceding winter. As indicated above, the results of Schubert et al. (2004a) and Seager et al. (2005b) suggest that the reason for multiyear

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Scott J. Weaver, Siegfried Schubert, and Hailan Wang

precipitation regime with emphasis on the southwestern monsoon. J. Climate , 11 , 2582 – 2606 . Higgins , R. W. , Y. Chen , and A. V. Douglas , 1999 : Interannual variability of the North American warm season precipitation regime. J. Climate , 12 , 653 – 680 . Holton , J. R. , 1967 : The diurnal boundary layer wind oscillation above sloping terrain. Tellus , 19 , 199 – 205 . Kalnay , E. , and Coauthors , 1996 : The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc

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Kingtse C. Mo, Jae-Kyung E. Schemm, and Soo-Hyun Yoo

:// ). The AGCM is forced by prescribed SST boundary conditions in combinations of the Pacific (P) mode ( Fig. 1a ) and the Atlantic (A) mode ( Fig. 1b ). Positive or negative anomalies associated with the warm (w) phase or the cold (c) phase of each pattern were added to the SST monthly mean climatology to form a global SST distribution to force the AGCM ( Schubert et al. 2009 ). The same forcing repeats each year. Therefore, trends are not included. The experiment forced by the monthly mean climatology

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