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Lauren E. Hay, Steven L. Markstrom, and Christian Ward-Garrison

1. Introduction In recognition of the vulnerability of freshwater resources to changing climate, many studies have sought to examine the effects of climate change on components of the hydrologic budget. The most common approach has been to combine basin-scale hydrologic models with climate-change scenarios derived from general circulation model (GCM) output ( Buytaert et al. 2009 ). GCMs are considered the most advanced tool currently available for simulating the effects of increasing

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William Battaglin, Lauren Hay, and Markstrom Steve

et al. 1991 ; Spahr et al. 1999 ). The 750-km 2 basin ranges in elevation from 2440 to 4350 m and has a mean elevation of 3099 m. Current and projected total water demand (total amount of water removed from the river, some of which is returned to the river when not consumptively used) in the Gunnison River basin is about equal to the native supply (undepleted, unregulated available surface water) ( Colorado Water Conservation Board 2002a ). Irrigation and municipal supply (2000 estimates) are

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David M. Bjerklie, Thomas J. Trombley, and Roland J. Viger

not require HRUs to be delineated on watershed boundaries, this model uses the 12-digit HUCs as HRUs to ensure that each HRU has a single outlet through which all streamflow passes. GIS characteristics of each HRU, including the coordinates of the HRU centroid, topography [slope, aspect, and elevation; ( http://ned.usgs.gov/ ); accessed October 2008], soils [( http://soils.usda.gov/survey/geography/ssurgo/ ); accessed October, 2008], land cover ( Vogelmann et al. 2001 ) [( http

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