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Fuqing Zhang, Yonghui Weng, Jason A. Sippel, Zhiyong Meng, and Craig H. Bishop

1. Introduction Landfalling hurricanes are among the deadliest and costliest natural hazards. Over the past decade, significant progress has been made in short-range track forecasts of tropical cyclones. The current-day average 48-h forecast position is as accurate as a 24-h track forecast was 10 yr ago ( Franklin 2004 ). However, there is virtually no improvement in our ability to predict hurricane intensity in terms of minimum sea level pressure, maximum wind speed, or amount of precipitation

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Sim D. Aberson

Atmospheric Research to replace the ODW ( Hock and Franklin 1999 ). The first 2 yr of surveillance (1997 and 1998), during which 5 and 19 missions were conducted, respectively, and in which symmetric sampling in all regions of the environment was employed, has been discussed previously ( Aberson and Franklin 1999 ; Aberson 2002 ). Only modest changes to model forecasts were seen, though individual case studies suggested that the difficulty in operational current storm-motion vector quantification for use

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Mu Mu, Feifan Zhou, and Hongli Wang

. Currently, several strategies have been applied to identify the sensitive areas. One strategy is based on the adjoint technique, such as singular vectors (SVs; Palmer et al. 1998 ), adjoint sensitivities ( Ancell and Mass 2006 ), and the adjoint-derived sensitivity steering vector (ADSSV; Wu et al. 2007 ). The adjoint of the forward tangent propagator of the numerical model is required for their calculation, so they are also named adjoint-based senstitivities ( Kim et al. 2004 ). Another strategy is

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Chun-Chieh Wu, Shin-Gan Chen, Jan-Huey Chen, Kun-Hsuan Chou, and Po-Hsiung Lin

1. Introduction Conventional observational data are inadequate in providing accurate initial and boundary conditions for numerical model simulations and forecasts of tropical cyclones (TCs), thus often leading to poor track and intensity forecasts ( Wu and Kuo 1999 ; Wu et al. 2005 ). Therefore, making additional observations in the critical areas that will have the maximum influence on numerical forecasts of TCs is an important task. Operational aircraft surveillance missions have been

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