Search Results
” constitutes a clear example for a two-phase development. The precursor rapidly crossed the North Atlantic as a DRW before it intensified to one of the most harmful storms in central Europe in the last few decades. Wernli et al. (2002) identified an intensive straight zonal jet during the DRW propagation phase of Lothar far to the north of the low-level vortex and excluded a significant upper-level forcing of the surface low due to the absence of waves on the intense jet. They demonstrated that later in
” constitutes a clear example for a two-phase development. The precursor rapidly crossed the North Atlantic as a DRW before it intensified to one of the most harmful storms in central Europe in the last few decades. Wernli et al. (2002) identified an intensive straight zonal jet during the DRW propagation phase of Lothar far to the north of the low-level vortex and excluded a significant upper-level forcing of the surface low due to the absence of waves on the intense jet. They demonstrated that later in
idealized setup ( Keane and Plant 2012 ). Groenemeijer and Craig (2012) implemented it in a limited-area model to show that the scheme adds a significant amount of variability to an ensemble. They found as well that this effect depends on the strength of the synoptic forcing. Keane et al. (2014) showed in global aquaplanet simulations that the variability introduced by the scheme adapts correctly to changes in model resolution. In this study, we investigate if the additional variability introduced
idealized setup ( Keane and Plant 2012 ). Groenemeijer and Craig (2012) implemented it in a limited-area model to show that the scheme adds a significant amount of variability to an ensemble. They found as well that this effect depends on the strength of the synoptic forcing. Keane et al. (2014) showed in global aquaplanet simulations that the variability introduced by the scheme adapts correctly to changes in model resolution. In this study, we investigate if the additional variability introduced
2006 ). Multiple integrations of NWP models (ensembles) can be used to provide probabilistic information but can be set up in different ways, depending on the represented sources of uncertainty. Recent studies have shown that in different weather regimes, different sources of uncertainty dominate: in cases of strong large-scale forcing, initial and boundary conditions uncertainty contributes more to the overall uncertainty, whereas in weak large-scale forcing, model error is more important
2006 ). Multiple integrations of NWP models (ensembles) can be used to provide probabilistic information but can be set up in different ways, depending on the represented sources of uncertainty. Recent studies have shown that in different weather regimes, different sources of uncertainty dominate: in cases of strong large-scale forcing, initial and boundary conditions uncertainty contributes more to the overall uncertainty, whereas in weak large-scale forcing, model error is more important
observed between 1958 and 2002 in conjunction with a positive North Atlantic Oscillation index during the last decades of the twentieth century ( Isotta et al. 2008 ). Although jet streams in the subtropics appear as a prominent climatological feature (e.g., Koch et al. 2006 ), their location, size, and amplitude are characterized by variability on synoptic time scales. The jet variability on the climatological time scale results from subtle forcing effects of slow-varying boundary conditions (e
observed between 1958 and 2002 in conjunction with a positive North Atlantic Oscillation index during the last decades of the twentieth century ( Isotta et al. 2008 ). Although jet streams in the subtropics appear as a prominent climatological feature (e.g., Koch et al. 2006 ), their location, size, and amplitude are characterized by variability on synoptic time scales. The jet variability on the climatological time scale results from subtle forcing effects of slow-varying boundary conditions (e
structures. For the first time, airborne observations were collected simultaneously by three research aircraft [Naval Research Laboratory-P3 (NRL-P3), U.S. Air Force-WC130 (USAF-WC130), and DLR-Falcon] during ET and provided unique and detailed insight into a TC approaching a midlatitude baroclinic zone. On 20 September the NRL-P3 and the USAF-WC130 measured the structure and the environment of a deep convective system that developed as Sinlaku was close to the primary midlatitude baroclinic zone. The
structures. For the first time, airborne observations were collected simultaneously by three research aircraft [Naval Research Laboratory-P3 (NRL-P3), U.S. Air Force-WC130 (USAF-WC130), and DLR-Falcon] during ET and provided unique and detailed insight into a TC approaching a midlatitude baroclinic zone. On 20 September the NRL-P3 and the USAF-WC130 measured the structure and the environment of a deep convective system that developed as Sinlaku was close to the primary midlatitude baroclinic zone. The
1. Introduction During the last few decades, forecasts of operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have continuously improved as a result of an enhanced spatial resolution and advanced parameterization schemes for the model physics. Furthermore, the global coverage of spaceborne remote sensing observations and their assimilation has rapidly improved the forecast skill ( Simmons and Hollingsworth 2002 ). However, the representation of cloud processes involving the condensation of
1. Introduction During the last few decades, forecasts of operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have continuously improved as a result of an enhanced spatial resolution and advanced parameterization schemes for the model physics. Furthermore, the global coverage of spaceborne remote sensing observations and their assimilation has rapidly improved the forecast skill ( Simmons and Hollingsworth 2002 ). However, the representation of cloud processes involving the condensation of
models were cloud-diabatic heating in a baroclinic background atmosphere producing a positive potential vorticity (PV) anomaly at low-tropospheric levels. The following basic conditions for DRW existence and propagation emerged from these simulations. The vortex of the positive low-level PV anomaly (that is accompanied by a weak SLP minimum) induces a poleward low-level jet of warm moist air at its downstream side. This stream ascends along the poleward-sloping isentropes until condensation occurs
models were cloud-diabatic heating in a baroclinic background atmosphere producing a positive potential vorticity (PV) anomaly at low-tropospheric levels. The following basic conditions for DRW existence and propagation emerged from these simulations. The vortex of the positive low-level PV anomaly (that is accompanied by a weak SLP minimum) induces a poleward low-level jet of warm moist air at its downstream side. This stream ascends along the poleward-sloping isentropes until condensation occurs
on one specific aspect of cyclogenesis downstream of ET, namely the relative importance of the jet streak as compared to that of the upper-level trough. Forecasters often discuss jet streaks and troughs as distinct features. In an idealized baroclinic wave, jet streak formation can be viewed as an intrinsic part of the wave’s amplification ( Rotunno et al. 1994 ; Wandishin et al. 2000 ). During ET, however, there is additional “external” forcing of the jet streak, largely due to the outflow of
on one specific aspect of cyclogenesis downstream of ET, namely the relative importance of the jet streak as compared to that of the upper-level trough. Forecasters often discuss jet streaks and troughs as distinct features. In an idealized baroclinic wave, jet streak formation can be viewed as an intrinsic part of the wave’s amplification ( Rotunno et al. 1994 ; Wandishin et al. 2000 ). During ET, however, there is additional “external” forcing of the jet streak, largely due to the outflow of
.g., Labitzke 1987 ; van Loon and Labitzke 1987 ), zonally asymmetric ozone changes (e.g., Peters et al. 2015 ), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (e.g., Butler and Polvani 2011 ), and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) (e.g., Garfinkel et al. 2012 ; Liu et al. 2014 ). All these processes change the forcing of planetary waves in the troposphere or change the wave propagation into and in the stratosphere (mainly wavenumbers 1–3; Charney and Drazin 1961 ; Dickinson 1969 ). The strong mean
.g., Labitzke 1987 ; van Loon and Labitzke 1987 ), zonally asymmetric ozone changes (e.g., Peters et al. 2015 ), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (e.g., Butler and Polvani 2011 ), and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) (e.g., Garfinkel et al. 2012 ; Liu et al. 2014 ). All these processes change the forcing of planetary waves in the troposphere or change the wave propagation into and in the stratosphere (mainly wavenumbers 1–3; Charney and Drazin 1961 ; Dickinson 1969 ). The strong mean
connected to two other projects that coordinated their observations: the operational DOTSTAR program enhanced its flight activity and the U.S. Navy conducted the Tropical Cyclone Structure Experiment (TCS-08). Altogether, up to four aircraft were simultaneously available in a two month period: One U.S. Air Force WC-130 aircraft, which could penetrate into the eye of TCs; one U.S. Navy P-3 aircraft, which focused on rainbands and the structure of convection; the Falcon 20 aircraft of the Deutsches
connected to two other projects that coordinated their observations: the operational DOTSTAR program enhanced its flight activity and the U.S. Navy conducted the Tropical Cyclone Structure Experiment (TCS-08). Altogether, up to four aircraft were simultaneously available in a two month period: One U.S. Air Force WC-130 aircraft, which could penetrate into the eye of TCs; one U.S. Navy P-3 aircraft, which focused on rainbands and the structure of convection; the Falcon 20 aircraft of the Deutsches
