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John L. Cintineo, Michael J. Pavolonis, Justin M. Sieglaff, Anthony Wimmers, Jason Brunner, and Willard Bellon

, resulting in overshooting cloud tops. These features may block strong upper-level wind flow, which is diverted around the overshooting tops, carrying cloud debris from the updraft summit, resulting in U- or V-shaped thermal couplets in infrared brightness temperature imagery (e.g., Setvák et al. 2013 ; Wang 2007 ; Brunner et al. 2007 ). Furthermore, high-refresh sequences of geostationary satellite images have been used to retrieve cloud-top divergence and cloud-top vorticity and subsequently detect

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Eric D. Loken, Adam J. Clark, Amy McGovern, Montgomery Flora, and Kent Knopfmeier

with the proper value of σ , spatially smoothing ensemble probabilities reduces sharpness (e.g., Sobash et al. 2011 , 2016 ; Loken et al. 2017 , 2019 ) and potentially sacrifices resolution if too much smoothing is required. Moreover, the “best” value of σ may vary based on geographic location and time of year (e.g., Fig. 3 ), as precipitation uncertainty is reduced where stronger and/or more predictable forcing is present, such as near high terrain (e.g., Blake et al. 2018 ) or during the

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