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Bradley P. Goodwin, Ellen Mosley-Thompson, Aaron B. Wilson, Stacy E. Porter, and M. Roxana Sierra-Hernandez

. The SAM indices ( Fig. 6a ) compare best over the post-1978 period when more and higher-quality data are available. An analysis by Jones et al. (2009) concluded that the station-based Marshall index best represents the SAM for the post-1957 period, which includes high-latitude station data. However, exploiting the longer ice core record requires a longer SAM history, which leaves the Fogt, Jones, Visbeck, and the newly developed Abram reconstructions. These indices are less reliable in the first

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Kyle R. Clem and James A. Renwick

using the quality-controlled station observation data obtained from the Reference Antarctic Data for Environmental Research archive ( Turner et al. 2004 ), as well as the patched and recently updated Byrd temperature record ( Bromwich et al. 2013 ). Tropical Pacific convective activity is monitored using daily and monthly mean interpolated outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data employed at 2.5° latitude–longitude resolution provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL Physical Sciences Division (PSD), Boulder

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Xichen Li, David M. Holland, Edwin P. Gerber, and Changhyun Yoo

6 . 2. SST trend during the last three decades We use the Hadley Centre’s Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature dataset (HadISST; Titchner and Rayner 2014 .) to estimate the SST trend during the last three decades from 1979 to 2012, which serves as the external forcing of our numerical models. We also divide the tropical oceans into four sectors based on the observed trend. There is a discontinuity in HadISST sea ice content (SIC) in 2009, due to the switching of satellite source data at that

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