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Suzana J. Camargo, Claudia F. Giulivi, Adam H. Sobel, Allison A. Wing, Daehyun Kim, Yumin Moon, Jeffrey D. O. Strong, Anthony D. Del Genio, Maxwell Kelley, Hiroyuki Murakami, Kevin A. Reed, Enrico Scoccimarro, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Michael F. Wehner, Colin Zarzycki, and Ming Zhao

and forecasts ( Murakami et al. 2014 ; Lee et al. 2018 ; W. Zhang et al. 2019 ). The relationship of TC genesis with large-scale environmental conditions has been studied since the late 1940s, which was summarized recently in Emanuel (2018) . First, Palmén (1948) showed using surface data and soundings that Atlantic hurricanes typically form over ocean with temperatures above 27°C and within 5° latitude of the equator, in regions that are conditionally unstable, while in other regions and

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Zhe Feng, Fengfei Song, Koichi Sakaguchi, and L. Ruby Leung

is presented in section 4 ; section 5 evaluates the simulated favorable MCS large-scale environments and associated precipitation evolution; Summary of the key findings and discussion on guidance for future model development are provided in section 6 . 2. Model setup and observational data a. Model setup This study uses the beta version of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 2, to which the nonhydrostatic MPAS–Atmosphere ( Skamarock et al. 2012 ) version 4 has been added as an

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Grey S. Nearing, Benjamin L. Ruddell, Martyn P. Clark, Bart Nijssen, and Christa Peters-Lidard

(nonrandom) relationships between controls and responses as we can extract directly from our experimental data. 3) Benchmark metrics So far, we’ve outlined a general strategy for setting benchmark reference values when the goal is to separate data uncertainty from model uncertainty, which we claim is at the core of the challenge of testing models. Benchmarking against nonparametric regressions allows us to test a hypothesis-driven model in absence of any a priori assumptions about the functional dynamics

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Maik Renner, Axel Kleidon, Martyn Clark, Bart Nijssen, Marvin Heidkamp, Martin Best, and Gab Abramowitz

is presented below, but the reader is referred to the PLUMBER publications for further detail ( Best et al. 2015 ; Haughton et al. 2016 ). a. Observations PLUMBER contains 20 sites distributed across continents with different climate and land cover conditions, see the map in Fig. 2 and details in Table 1 . For the analysis of the observations we removed data that did not pass quality control provided by the PLUMBER dataset (see Best et al. 2015 ). Further data screening for the present

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Allison A. Wing, Suzana J. Camargo, Adam H. Sobel, Daehyun Kim, Yumin Moon, Hiroyuki Murakami, Kevin A. Reed, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Michael F. Wehner, Colin Zarzycki, and Ming Zhao

:// . Wehner , M. F. , and Coauthors , 2014 : The effect of horizontal resolution on simulation quality in the Community Atmospheric Model, CAM5.1 . J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. , 6 , 980 – 997 , . 10.1002/2013MS000276 Wing , A. A. , and K. A. Emanuel , 2014 : Physical mechanisms controlling self-aggregation of convection in idealized numerical modeling simulations . J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. , 6 , 59 – 74 ,

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