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  • Decadal variability x
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B. Timbal and R. Fawcett

the Australian region. In many instances, the proxies used are remote from the area and the reconstructions are based on observed teleconnections between regional rainfall and large-scale modes of variability: for example, Verdon and Franks (2006) , who looked at Pacific decadal oscillation proxies to infer Australian rainfall; Lough (2007) , who attempted to reconstruct far North Queensland rainfall, and McGowan et al. (2009) , who rely on a single proxy in China to infer Murray

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Tessa R. Vance, Tas D. van Ommen, Mark A. J. Curran, Chris T. Plummer, and Andrew D. Moy

1. Introduction The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant source of interannual climate variability. ENSO is characterized by a zonal seesaw in SST and atmospheric pressure in the tropical and subtropical Pacific and causes interannual climate and weather anomalies far beyond the Pacific margin. Observed changes to ENSO behavior in recent decades (e.g., Federov and Philander 2000 ; Ashok et al. 2007 ; Yeh et al. 2009 ) are difficult to assess in the context of either

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Michelle Ho, Danielle C. Verdon-Kidd, Anthony S. Kiem, and Russell N. Drysdale

1. Introduction A common limitation in hydroclimatic risk assessment is the lack of suitably long records with which to assess decadal to multidecadal variability ( Kiem and Franks 2004 ; Rutherford et al. 2005 ; Cook et al. 2006 ; Verdon-Kidd and Kiem 2010 ; Gallant et al. 2012 ). For example, in Australia and much of the Southern Hemisphere, reliable rainfall and streamflow records are limited to the last approximately 90 years at best (with records even shorter for most regions

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Steven J. Phipps, Helen V. McGregor, Joëlle Gergis, Ailie J. E. Gallant, Raphael Neukom, Samantha Stevenson, Duncan Ackerley, Josephine R. Brown, Matt J. Fischer, and Tas D. van Ommen

of internal variability when studying the response of the climate system to external forcings. b. Temperature reconstructions Two state-of-the-art multiproxy hemispheric temperature reconstructions are chosen as the basis for the first case study. The Northern and Southern Hemisphere reconstructions of Mann et al. (2008) were derived from a global network of 1209 annually and decadally resolved proxies. The data were obtained from archives that include ice cores, coral, speleothems, and

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Ailie J. E. Gallant, Steven J. Phipps, David J. Karoly, A. Brett Mullan, and Andrew M. Lorrey

that, while the influence of decadal-scale variability (i.e., the IPO/PDO) may cause a waxing and waning of Australian ENSO teleconnections, these fluctuations are not extreme compared to the range of possible stochastic variation. Indeed, Sterl et al. (2007) deliberately chose a window of 25 yr to calculate their running correlations in order to be “long enough to resolve ENSO and short enough not to be influenced by low-frequency (decadal and longer) variations.” In contrast, we sought to

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