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David S. Battisti, Daniel J. Vimont, and Benjamin P. Kirtman

1. Introduction There was little discussion of coupled atmosphere–ocean variability in the first two-thirds of the twentieth century. In an early study, Sir Gilbert Walker analyzed station data around the world and coined the term “Southern Oscillation” for a large-scale coherent oscillation in sea level pressure and in precipitation in the Maritime Continent ( Walker 1924 ). 1 Decades later, Berlage (1966) linked the Southern Oscillation to episodic, localized warming off Peru and Ecuador

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John E. Walsh, David H. Bromwich, James. E. Overland, Mark C. Serreze, and Kevin R. Wood

funding provided by U.S. agencies and various other nations. As the buoy program approaches four decades of operation, its uses have included the real-time support of operations, ingestion into reanalyses, and diagnostic studies encompassing the time scales of weather, the seasonal cycle, interannual variability, and climate change. The first buoys were sheltered instruments, deployed on the ice surface to measure atmospheric pressure, air temperature, and position. Interrogated by satellite at

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Mark P. Baldwin, Thomas Birner, Guy Brasseur, John Burrows, Neal Butchart, Rolando Garcia, Marvin Geller, Lesley Gray, Kevin Hamilton, Nili Harnik, Michaela I. Hegglin, Ulrike Langematz, Alan Robock, Kaoru Sato, and Adam A. Scaife

variability of the NAO to the SC ( Thiéblemont et al. 2015 ). Finally, Reichler et al. (2012) suggest an active role for the stratosphere on longer, interdecadal time scales through interactions with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, and the experiments of Omrani et al. (2016) provide further evidence that North Atlantic Ocean variability (NAV) impacts the coupled stratosphere–troposphere system. As NAV has been shown to be predictable on seasonal-to-decadal time scales, these results have

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Randall M. Dole

Abstract

Historically, the atmospheric sciences have tended to treat problems of weather and climate separately. The real physical system, however, is a continuum, with short-term (minutes to days) “weather” fluctuations influencing climate variations and change, and, conversely, more slowly varying aspects of the system (typical time scales of a season or longer) affecting the weather that is experienced. While this past approach has served important purposes, it is becoming increasingly apparent that in order to make progress in addressing many socially important problems, an improved understanding of the connections between weather and climate is required.

This overview summarizes the progress over the last few decades in the understanding of the phenomena and mechanisms linking weather and climate variations. The principal emphasis is on developments in understanding key phenomena and processes that bridge the time scales between synoptic-scale weather variability (periods of approximately 1 week) and climate variations of a season or longer. Advances in the ability to identify synoptic features, improve physical understanding, and develop forecast skill within this time range are reviewed, focusing on a subset of major, recurrent phenomena that impact extratropical wintertime weather and climate variations over the Pacific–North American region. While progress has been impressive, research has also illuminated areas where future gains are possible. This article concludes with suggestions on near-term directions for advancing the understanding and capabilities to predict the connections between weather and climate variations.

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Lee-Lueng Fu, Tong Lee, W. Timothy Liu, and Ronald Kwok

allowed the study of global sea level change caused by climate variability. This ocean observing system has established a framework to assess, understand, and possibly predict the sea level change in the future. Seasat has also inspired follow-on missions to measure the vector wind field. Most notable was the QuikSCAT mission launched in 1999. It provided the first decade-long high-resolution wind field. While the scatterometer was originally designed as a wind sensor, the backscatter it measured had

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Russ E. Davis, Lynne D. Talley, Dean Roemmich, W. Brechner Owens, Daniel L. Rudnick, John Toole, Robert Weller, Michael J. McPhaden, and John A. Barth

, which have served as a climate change benchmark for the more recent decadal hydrographic surveys in CLIVAR (Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability, and Change; http://www.clivar.org/ ) and now GO-SHIP (Global Ocean Ship-Based Hydrographic Investigations Program; http://www.go-ship.org/index.html ). The WHP executed basin-scale surveys from the late 1980s through 1997 ( WOCE 2002 ). In addition to temperature and salinity, the systematic coverage importantly included direct velocity

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Carl Wunsch and Raffaele Ferrari

. This remarkable instrument system, based ultimately on the reversing thermometer, the Nansen bottle, and titration chemistry, permitted the delineation of the basic three-dimensional temperature and salt distributions of the ocean. As the only way to make such measurements required going to individual locations and spending hours or days with expensive ships, global exploration took many decades. Figures 7-2 and 7-3 display the coverage that reached to at least 2000 and 3600 m over the decades

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Eli J. Mlawer, Michael J. Iacono, Robert Pincus, Howard W. Barker, Lazaros Oreopoulos, and David L. Mitchell

simulations was a central motivation for the establishment of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program and, consequently, one of the most critical objectives of the program’s first decade. In Stokes and Schwartz (1994 , p. 1203), the primary objectives of the ARM Program are 1) “to relate observed radiative fluxes in the atmosphere, spectrally resolved … to the atmospheric temperature, composition … and surface radiative properties” and 2) “to develop and test parameterizations that describe

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Eric D. Maloney and Chidong Zhang

interesting times for me, and I know that Yanai’s work was influential” (R. Madden 2010, personal communication). Fig . 4-1. Schematic representation of an MJO life cycle from Madden and Julian (1972) . Professor Yanai was one of the early users of methods for decomposing tropical variability in the wavenumber–frequency domain ( Zangvil and Yanai 1981 ), which were developed for use in the tropical meteorology several years earlier by Professor Yanai’s student Yoshikazu Hayashi at the University of Tokyo

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Steven K. Esbensen, Jan-Hwa Chu, Wen-wen Tung, and Robert G. Fovell

, the problem was solved, and Yanai’s group used this formalism for all of its cloud diagnostic work over the following decade. Dr. Nitta also worked closely with Steve Esbensen on the analysis of the structure and variability of the trade wind boundary layer during BOMEX and its cloud ensemble properties ( Nitta and Esbensen 1974a , b ; Nitta 1975 ). Dr. Nitta later became a much respected professor at the University of Tokyo. Sadly, Professor Nitta would die at a young age, as would former

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