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John F. Walker, Lauren E. Hay, Steven L. Markstrom, and Michael D. Dettinger

estimates of flow magnitudes recurring with 1.5-yr return intervals was chosen to represent changes in flows important for sediment transport and channel geomorphology, with associated implications for stream habitat ( Leopold et al. 1964 ; Dunne and Leopold 1978 ; Castro and Jackson 2001 ; Simon et al. 2004 ). Using the component resampling approach, empirical probability density functions (pdfs) of the 1.5-yr flood were determined for the 14 study watersheds at each of 3 decades spanning the twenty

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Kathryn M. Koczot, Steven L. Markstrom, and Lauren E. Hay

study. The DWR also provided funding towards the study described herein. References Alley , R. B. , and Coauthors , 2007 : Summary for policymakers . Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, S. Solomon et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 18 pp . Arnell , N. W. , 2003a : Effects of IPCC SRES emissions scenarios on river runoff: A global perspective . Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. , 7 , 619 – 641 . Arnell , N. W. , 2003b : Relative effects of multi-decadal climatic variability

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Lauren E. Hay, Steven L. Markstrom, and Christian Ward-Garrison

precipitation forecasts . J. Hydrol. , 239 , 306 – 337 . Arnell , N. W. , 2003a : Effects of IPCC SRES emissions scenarios on river runoff: A global perspective . Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. , 7 , 619 – 641 . Arnell , N. W. , 2003b : Relative effects of multi-decadal climatic variability and changes in the mean and variability of climate due to global warming: Future streamflows in Britain . J. Hydrol. , 270 , 195 – 213 . Arnell , N. W. , and N. S. Reynard , 1996 : The effects of climate

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John Risley, Hamid Moradkhani, Lauren Hay, and Steve Markstrom

assess the effects of potential climate change on mean annual runoff throughout the conterminous United States, Wolock and McCabe ( Wolock and McCabe 1999 ) used a simple water-balance model and output from two atmospheric GCMs. However, their results were uncertain because they were mostly within the range of GCM decade-to-decade variability and GCM model error. To simulate hydrologic climate changes at a watershed scale, downscaled GCM air temperature and precipitation data can be input to

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Roland J. Viger, Lauren E. Hay, Steven L. Markstrom, John W. Jones, and Gary R. Buell

minimum values. The temporal variability and sequencing remain unchanged, limiting this method to studies examining changes in mean climatic conditions. PRMS was then run 675 times, once for each modified input file. 6. Results In this study, PRMS was configured to run with two types of future conditions (through 2050) for the Flint River basin, 1) changes in urbanization as projected by the FORE-SCE model and 2) changes in climate as projected by GCMs. In the following sections, the PRMS simulation

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