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Adrian M. Tompkins and Laura Feudale

associated with the poor forecasts for the drought years of the early 1980s is apparent ( Fig. 4b ). The fact that both the prediction of the decadal trend and the interannual variability improves from the mid-1990s, reflected in increased skill scores, indicates that the quality of the ocean observing system (and the resulting ocean analysis) was not sufficient during the earlier decades since the forecast modeling system is identical for all periods. Indeed, it was only in the late 1990s that the

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Benjamin Sultan, Serge Janicot, and Cyrille Correia

( Ingram et al. 2002 ), as the occurrence of dry spells can strongly impact yields of rain-fed crops ( Sultan et al. 2005 ). Although there is more and more evidence of specific intraseasonal variability in convective activity during the West African monsoon ( Janicot and Sultan 2001 ; Sultan and Janicot 2003 ; Matthews 2004 ; Mounier and Janicot 2004 ; Mounier et al. 2008 ), no study has investigated its predictability. Nevertheless, there are many examples of skillful forecasts of intraseasonal

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O. Bock and M. Nuret

. , Leutbecher M. , Rodwell M. J. , Vivart F. , and Balsamo G. , 2008 : Advances in simulating atmospheric variability with the ECMWF model: From synoptic to decadal time scales. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , 134 , 1337 – 1351 . 10.1002/qj.289 Bevis, M. , Businger S. , Chiswell S. , Herning T. A. , Anthes R. A. , Rocken C. , and Ware R. H. , 1994 : GPS Meteorology: Mapping zenith wet delay onto precipitable water. J. Appl. Meteor. , 33 , 379 – 386 . 10

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C. Faccani, F. Rabier, N. Fourrié, A. Agusti-Panareda, F. Karbou, P. Moll, J.-P. Lafore, M. Nuret, F. Hdidou, and O. Bock

1. Introduction The African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) is an international project focused on the study of the African monsoon ( Redelsperger et al. 2006 ). Rainfall changes during this particular period of the year are important to the people living in the monsoon areas. As a matter of fact, over the last few decades, West Africa experienced abundant rainfall during the 1950s and 1960s, and very dry conditions between the 1970s and 1990s. The environmental and socioeconomical

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Françoise Guichard, Nicole Asencio, Christophe Peugeot, Olivier Bock, Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Xuefeng Cui, Matthew Garvert, Benjamin Lamptey, Emiliano Orlandi, Julia Sander, Federico Fierli, Miguel Angel Gaertner, Sarah C. Jones, Jean-Philippe Lafore, Andrew Morse, Mathieu Nuret, Aaron Boone, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Patricia de Rosnay, Bertrand Decharme, Philip P. Harris, and J.-C. Bergès

. 10.1175/2008JHM1068.1 Bechtold, P. , and Coauthors , 2008 : Advances in simulating atmospheric variability with the ECMWF model: From synoptic to decadal time-scales. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , 134 , 1337 – 1351 . 10.1002/qj.289 Betts, A. K. , and Miller M. J. , 1986 : A new convective adjustment scheme. Part II: Single column tests using GATE wave, BOMEX, ATEX and arctic air-mass data sets. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , 112 , 693 – 709 . Bock, O. , Guichard F. , Janicot S

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