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Asher B. Siebert and M. Neil Ward

decadal to multidecadal variability (MDV) in a random stochastic sense, a feature sometimes not explicitly emphasized in GCM scenarios. In this paper, the methodology is applied to seasonal rainfall totals at four representative sites in Africa, and with a particular motivating problem of index insurance. The aim is to provide insights into the levels of bias and uncertainty in estimating event frequencies into the future, under specified assumptions of climate variability and change. The framework

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V. Sivakumar, H. Bencherif, N. Bègue, and A. M. Thompson

presents the monthly and interannual variability of CPT, LRT, and OT, and the decadal-trend estimation is described. The last section summarizes the main findings from this study. Fig . 1. The geographical positions of different SHADOZ stations used for this study. 2. Data and method a. Data This study is based on 11-yr (1998–2008) radiosonde–ozonesonde datasets collected over nine SHADOZ sites: San Cristobal (0.92°S, 89.60°W), in the Galapagos Islands; Nairobi, Kenya (1.27°S, 36.8°E); Natal, Brazil (5

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Robert E. Nicholas and David S. Battisti

Fig. 3 . c. Rainfall reconstruction from tree rings Although our merged index of Yaqui rainfall has proven useful for identifying the relationship between Yaqui rainfall and large-scale sources of variability, 104 yr constitutes a relatively short record for obtaining good statistics on droughts that may last from several years to a decade or more. Given the scarcity of station data prior to the early twentieth century, the only alternative source of objective precipitation information would be a

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Erin Towler, Debasish PaiMazumder, and James Done

predictions (such as projections of climate change) and initialized predictions (such as decadal) is that uninitialized predictions only aim to predict the forced response to greenhouse gases, whereas the initialized predictions aim to predict both the forced response and the natural variability. To quantify the skill of the decadal temperature hindcasts, several metrics have been used (e.g., Goddard et al. 2012b ; Saha et al. 2006 ). Anomaly correlation skill score (ACC) shows widespread skill of

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Eui-Seok Chung and Brian J. Soden

M. McCormick , 1993 : The poleward dispersal of Mount Pinatubo volcanic aerosol. J. Geophys. Res. , 98D , 18563 – 18573 . Uppala , S. M. , and Coauthors , 2005 : The ERA-40 re-analysis. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , 131 , 2961 – 3012 . Wielicki , B. A. , and Coauthors , 2002 : Evidence for large decadal variability in the tropical mean radiative energy budget. Science , 295 , 841 – 844 . Fig . 1. Area-weighted domain average of observed monthly mean brightness temperature

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Eduardo Agosta, Pablo Canziani, and Martín Cavagnaro

variability change, which took place in the mid-1970s, is associated with regional atmospheric circulation changes over southern South America, linked to the El Niño–like variability phase change that was observed in 1976/77 ( Ebbesmeyer et al. 1991 ; Zhang et al. 1997 ; Mantua et al. 1997 ; Huang et al. 2005 ). It is well established that the El Niño–like variability, also known as Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO; Mantua et al. 1997 ) results in associated SST spatial structure changes approximately

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Qi Hu, Xueqing Ma, Xuebiao Pan, and Huang Binxiang

1. Introduction For the past 60 years, climate change marked by global warming has definitely occurred ( Vaughan et al. 2003 ). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirmed that Earth surface’s air temperature increased by approximately 0.6° ± 0.2°C during the twentieth century ( IPCC 2013 ). In China, climate warming is more pronounced, with a temperature increase of 0.27°C decade −1 over the past five decades, and North China showed an obviously higher warming trend

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Mark W. Seefeldt, Thomas M. Hopson, and Thomas T. Warner

time scale, possibly decadal, that plays a role in the variation of the moisture patterns. The yearly progression through the different relative humidity patterns during a dry season has a unique pattern; there can be wide variability in the year-to-year sequencing of the relative humidity patterns, however. Using the master SOM ( Fig. 2 ) as a reference, the general succession starts in the top left, the relatively moist patterns, during the months leading up to the dry season. The pattern then

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Ehud Strobach and Golan Bel

1. Introduction Global decadal climate simulations are designed to provide information on the dynamics of the climate system over time scales of one to three decades ( Smith et al. 2007 ; Keenlyside et al. 2008 ; Pohlmann et al. 2009 ). On these time scales, it is not only the response of the climate system to changes in the atmospheric composition and changes in the land surface that are of interest but also the natural variability of the climate system ( Meehl et al. 2009 , 2014 ). Global

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Xubin Zeng, Praveen Rao, Ruth S. DeFries, and Matthew C. Hansen

; Zhou et al. 2001 ; Tucker et al. 2001 ). Here we address the interannual variability and decadal trend of FVC between 1982 and 2000. Data and algorithm The 10-day composite National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration–National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NOAA–NASA) land Pathfinder NDVI dataset at 8-km resolution for the years 1982–2000 ( James and Kalluri 1994 ) is used here. This dataset was produced with data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the afternoon

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