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Stephan Rasp and Sebastian Lerch

parameters without having to specify appropriate link functions, and the ease of adding station information into a global model by using embeddings. The network model parameters are estimated by optimizing the CRPS, a nonstandard choice in the machine learning literature tailored to probabilistic forecasting. Furthermore, the rapid pace of development in the deep learning community provides flexible and efficient modeling techniques and software libraries. The presented approach can therefore be easily

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Toward a Systematic Evaluation of Warm Conveyor Belts in Numerical Weather Prediction and Climate Models. Part I: Predictor Selection and Logistic Regression Model

Julian F. Quinting and Christian M. Grams

major advantage of the logistic regression approach compared to other classification techniques such as nonlinear support vector machines ( Vapnik 1963 ) or deep learning methods ( McGovern et al. 2019 ): the regression coefficients directly give inference about the importance of each predictor. Thus, logistic regression models can be used quite intuitively to find out the relationship between the predictands and independent predictor variables, and allow to check the model’s plausibility

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Thomas Engel, Andreas H. Fink, Peter Knippertz, Gregor Pante, and Jan Bliefernicht

(irregular) overpasses between 31 August and 1 September 2009. Microwave window channels reliably delineate deep continental convection in contrast to infrared brightness temperatures, for which cirrus anvils conceal convectively active regions ( Redl et al. 2015 ). A linear, squall line–type system with two main convective regions is located over southwestern Niger in the evening of 31 August ( Fig. 2a ). Convection enters eastern Burkina Faso around midnight ( Figs. 2b,c ) and reintensifies in the

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Georgios Fragkoulidis and Volkmar Wirth

North Atlantic jet, reach deep into northern Asia ( Fig. 4 and Figs. S9a–d ). The study of Chang and Yu (1999) verifies the existence of this secondary Siberian waveguide, with disturbances that originate in Scandinavia and reach the North Pacific after 4 days. Salient features in the seasonal patterns of c gy do arise and are in good agreement with the ones in the lag-correlation analysis of Chang (1999) . Focusing first on winter, positive values of c gy are found to the north and

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