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David M. Schultz

shift associated with an advancing cold front. Understanding the reasons for such wind shifts in these situations has the potential to improve forecast performance. I restrict attention in this paper to prefrontal features associated with surface-based cold fronts for five reasons. First, the conceptual model of surface cold fronts emphasizes the simultaneous occurrence of the temperature drop, wind shift, and pressure minimum. If structures differ from this conceptual model, then learning more

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Peter Jan van Leeuwen

dominant order, and from diabatic processes such as deep convection, cloud formation, and precipitation. In this paper we concentrate on physical models of the atmosphere and oceans, although the ideas developed are also of interest to other geophysical systems such as hydrology and atmospheric chemistry. With ever-increasing resolution, the nonlinearities are likely to become so strong that data-assimilation methods based on linearizations, such as the Kalman filter and its ensemble versions, as well

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