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Myong-In Lee, Siegfried D. Schubert, Max J. Suarez, Isaac M. Held, Arun Kumar, Thomas L. Bell, Jae-Kyung E. Schemm, Ngar-Cheung Lau, Jeffrey J. Ploshay, Hyun-Kyung Kim, and Soo-Hyun Yoo

observations and the other two AGCMs. The GFDL and NCEP models, on the other hand, do show some eastward propagation from the mountains. However, the propagation speed in the GFDL simulations is too slow, whereas the NCEP model shows more realistic propagation speeds. We speculate that the different propagation speeds of the convective systems are related to model differences in the vertical structure of the diabatic heating induced by latent heat release ( Gill 1980 ; Silva Dias et al. 1987 ). If we

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J. Craig Collier and Guang J. Zhang

intensification of an anticyclonic gyre is a major forcing mechanism for the low-level monsoon moisture-laden circulation over western Mexico. And the monsoon is more than just a hydrologic forcing on the climate system. Barlow et al. (1998) show that in the monsoon’s mature phase diabatic heating over northwestern Mexico is as large as 1 K day −1 , which influences continental-scale divergence and vorticity dynamics. Accurately predicting the interannual variability of the monsoon system would aid water

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