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Paul A. Dirmeyer, Jiangfeng Wei, Michael G. Bosilovich, and David M. Mocko

Burde and Zangvil (2001) . These approaches typically use global atmospheric reanalyses as the source of the necessary meteorological fields. Dominguez et al. (2006) recognized that the lack of water budget closure in reanalyses could affect the bulk estimates but decided the impact was small over the United States. Bisselink and Dolman (2008) came to the same conclusion for Europe. This approach has been extended to differentiate solely between terrestrial and oceanic moisture sources (e

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Richard Seager, Lisa Goddard, Jennifer Nakamura, Naomi Henderson, and Dong Eun Lee

imposed allowing land surfaces to warm and the atmospheric circulation to adjust to the changes in radiative properties. The other model is the European Centre-Hamburg model, version 4.5 (ECHAM4.5; Roeckner et al. 1996 ), and we use a 24-member ensemble from 1950 on available in the International Research Institute for Climate and Society Data Library ( http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.IRI/.FD/.ECHAM4p5/.History/.MONTHLY/ ). We also use the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis and the Interim European Centre

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Hailan Wang, Siegfried Schubert, Randal Koster, Yoo-Geun Ham, and Max Suarez

. (2011) , MERRA is an improvement over the previous generation of reanalyses and is in many aspects comparable to the other new reanalyses such as the Interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) ( Dee et al. 2011 ) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) ( Saha et al. 2010 ). There are, however, still substantial uncertainties and differences between these new reanalyses in poorly constrained quantities

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M. Hoerling, J. Eischeid, A. Kumar, R. Leung, A. Mariotti, K. Mo, S. Schubert, and R. Seager

Atmosphere Model, version 4 (CAM4), global climate model ( Gent et al. 2011 ), with the simulations performed at a 1° ~100 km) resolution and 26 atmospheric levels, and for which a 20-member ensemble is available. The second global climate model is the European Center Hamburg model version 5 (ECHAM5; Roeckner et al. 2003 ), with simulations performed at T159 (~80km) resolution and 31 atmospheric levels and for which a 10-member ensemble is available. In both models, monthly varying SSTs and sea ice and

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Sujay V. Kumar, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, David Mocko, Rolf Reichle, Yuqiong Liu, Kristi R. Arsenault, Youlong Xia, Michael Ek, George Riggs, Ben Livneh, and Michael Cosh

Imager (TMI; since 1997); the AMSR-E (2002–11); scatterometer-based products from European Remote Sensing Satellites 1 and 2 ( ERS-1 and ERS-2 ; 1991–2006) and Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT; since 2007); and more recently, the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS; since late 2009) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) on the Global Change Observations Mission 1–Water ( GCOM-W1 ) satellite and the soon-to-be-launched Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission ( Entekhabi et al

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Hongshuo Wang, Jeffrey C. Rogers, and Darla K. Munroe

the calculation of reference evapotranspiration. In addition, the SPEI has the flexibility to take into account different time scales of drought in comparison with the PDSI and Z index. Similar results can be found in other regions. For example, the SPEI was found to have a higher correlation with soil moisture than the SPI in the western and central United States ( Vicente-Serrano et al. 2012 ). Beguería et al. (2013) pointed out that the SPEI can characterize severe drought events in Europe

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Jason A. Otkin, Martha C. Anderson, Christopher Hain, Iliana E. Mladenova, Jeffrey B. Basara, and Mark Svoboda

Drought Response Index (VegDRI): A new integrated approach for monitoring drought stress in vegetation . GISci. Remote Sens. , 45 , 16 – 46 . Ciais, P. , and Coauthors , 2005 : Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by heat and drought in 2003 . Nature , 437 , 529 – 533 . Higgins, R. W. , Shi W. , Yarosh E. , and Joyce R. , 2000 : Improved United States precipitation quality control system and analysis. NCEP/Climate Prediction Center ATLAS 7, Camp Springs, MD, 40 pp

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Bart Nijssen, Shraddhanand Shukla, Chiyu Lin, Huilin Gao, Tian Zhou, Ishottama, Justin Sheffield, Eric F. Wood, and Dennis P. Lettenmaier

. From 2007 to 2013, Lloyd-Hughes and Saunders (2007) operated a global drought monitor, which was updated on a monthly basis and used station-based precipitation from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC; Schneider et al. 2014 ) and air temperature from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Their system used the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI). Princeton University operates an African drought monitor

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Johnna M. Infanti and Ben P. Kirtman

, 2004 : Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) . Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 85 , 853 – 872 , doi:10.1175/BAMS-85-6-853 . Peng, P. , Kumar A. , van den Dool H. , and Barnston A. G. , 2002 : An analysis of multimodel ensemble predictions for seasonal climate anomalies . J. Geophys. Res. , 107 , 4710 , doi:10.1029/2002JD002712 . Pielke, R. A. , and Downton M. W. , 2000 : Precipitation and damaging floods: Trends in

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