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Antonietta Capotondi and Michael A. Alexander

abandonment of the ancestral Pueblo Indians sites at the beginning of the fifteenth century ( Douglass 1929 , 1935 ; Dillehay 1974 ; Jones et al. 1999 ; Benson et al. 2007 ). This time coincided with the Medieval Warm Period in Europe ( a.d. 800– a.d. 1400), indicating that long-lasting droughts in the western United States may be associated with global-scale precipitation anomalies ( Seager et al. 2007 ). In particular, dry conditions in western North America tend to be associated with dry

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Kirsten L. Findell and Thomas L. Delworth

include increased drought frequency in the continental United States and southern South America and to a lesser extent in southern Europe into central Asia and along the southeastern coast of Asia. Additionally, we see increased pluvial frequency in southern Central America, northern and central South America, and to a lesser extent Australia, Arabia, India, and southern Africa. All of the models show these same general results, with notable variations in the spatial extent of the responses and the

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Philip J. Pegion and Arun Kumar

others. The composites of the Pacific SST pattern ( Fig. 2 , middle panels) show an increase in precipitation over the central and southern United States and decreased precipitation covering most of Australia. The temperature composite shows warming over the northern and western portions of the United States and cooler temperatures over the southern tier states. There are also below average temperatures covering eastern Europe. The composites of the Atlantic pattern ( Fig. 2 , bottom panels) show

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Caio A. S. Coelho and Lisa Goddard

; Coelho et al. 2006 ) and therefore provide comparative perspective for CMIP3 simulations. For this reason, this study is performed using the following climate models: Three Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) ( Palmer et al. 2004 ) coupled seasonal forecast models [European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Météo-France, and Met Office (UKMO)], which have long hindcasts extending back to the mid-twentieth century and

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Renu Joseph and Ning Zeng

. Moberg , T. J. Osborn , and K. R. Briffa , 2003 : Surface climate responses to explosive volcanic eruptions seen in long European temperature records and mid-to-high latitude tree-ring density around the Northern Hemisphere . Volcanism and the Earth’s Atmosphere, Geophys. Monogr., Vol. 139, Amer. Geophys. Union, 239–254 . Koch , D. , D. Jacob , I. Tegen , D. Rind , and M. Chin , 1999 : Tropospheric sulfur simulation and sulfate direct radiative forcing in the Goddard

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M. Biasutti, A. H. Sobel, and Suzana J. Camargo

; conversely, the “wet” models ( Fig. 6 , right) simulate much stronger negative anomalies in the lower half of the troposphere, with positive anomalies in the upper half to match. A horizontal view of the low-level geopotential height anomalies ( Fig. 7 ) shows that the “dry” models center the negative anomalies in the Arabian Peninsula and simulate positive anomalies both in the Sahel and western Sahara and, more strongly, in Europe, while the “wet” models simulate a large-scale low that extends from the

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Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas and Sumant Nigam

world, including 1) the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) [ Collins et al. (2006) and additional references in the CCSM special issue in the Journal of Climate , 2006, Vol. 19, No. 11], 2) the NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Climate Model version 2.1 (CM2.1) ( Delworth et al. 2006 ), 3) the third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (HadCM3) ( Gordon et al. 2000 ; Pope et al. 2000 ), and 4) the European

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Yochanan Kushnir, Richard Seager, Mingfang Ting, Naomi Naik, and Jennifer Nakamura

. Climate , 21 , 3261 – 3281 . Seager , R. , and Coauthors , 2009 : Mexican drought: An observational, modeling and tree ring study of variability and climate change. Atmósfera , 22 , 1 – 31 . Sutton , R. T. , and D. L. R. Hodson , 2005 : Atlantic Ocean forcing of North American and European summer climate. Science , 309 , 115 – 118 . Sutton , R. T. , and D. L. R. Hodson , 2007 : Climate response to basin-scale warming and cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean. J. Climate , 20

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Randal D. Koster, Hailan Wang, Siegfried D. Schubert, Max J. Suarez, and Sarith Mahanama

temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res. , 108 , 4407 . doi:10.1029/2002JD002670 . Schubert , S. , and Coauthors , 2009 : A U.S. CLIVAR project to assess and compare the responses of global climate models to drought-related SST forcing patterns: Overview and results. J. Climate , in press . Seneviratne , S. I. , D. Luthi , M. Litschi , and C. Schar , 2006 : Land–atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe

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Bradfield Lyon

United States and Europe. Mon. Wea. Rev. , 106 , 142 – 147 . Mason , S. J. , and P. D. Tyson , 2000 : The occurrence and predictability of droughts over Southern Africa. Drought: A Global Assessment, D. A. Wilhite, Ed., Vol. 1, Routledge, 113–134 . McKee , T. B. , N. J. Doesken , and J. Kleist , 1993 : The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. Preprints, Eigth Conf. on Applied Climatology, Anaheim, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 179–184 . Meehl , G. A

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