Search Results

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 29 items for :

  • Waves to Weather (W2W) x
  • All content x
Clear All
Christian Barthlott and Corinna Hoose

aerosol–cloud interactions, we performed numerical simulations with maritime, intermediate, continental, and continental polluted conditions for which the number density of condensation nuclei N CN , the mean radius of the larger aerosol mode R 2 , and the logarithm of the mode’s standard deviation [log( σ )] are prescribed ( Table 1 ). Typical conditions of central Europe are represented by the continental aerosol assumption ( Hande et al. 2016 ). Similar to other double-moment schemes (e

Full access
Joël Arnault, Thomas Rummler, Florian Baur, Sebastian Lerch, Sven Wagner, Benjamin Fersch, Zhenyu Zhang, Noah Kerandi, Christian Keil, and Harald Kunstmann

boundary layer (PBL) dynamics, thus potentially influencing precipitation. The representation of PBL dynamics in atmospheric models, through turbulence parameterization, also influences precipitation. However, it is unknown if the uncertainty in the representation of terrestrial water flow increases the precipitation spread originating from PBL scheme uncertainty. This study addresses the precipitation sensitivity to the uncertainty in the representation of terrestrial water flow for central Europe

Full access
Joaquim G. Pinto, Florian Pantillon, Patrick Ludwig, Madeleine-Sophie Déroche, Giovanni Leoncini, Christoph C. Raible, Len C. Shaffrey, and David B. Stephenson

INTERDISCIPLINARY WORKSHOP ON EUROPEAN STORMS What : The seventh European Storm Workshop gathered scientists and insurance industry experts from 10 countries to facilitate an interdisciplinary exchange regarding novel scientific advances and developments in risk modeling, allowing specialists with different backgrounds working in European windstorm research to discuss the priorities for future research. When : 10–12 October 2018 Where : Karlsruhe, Germany Windstorms are extreme midlatitude

Open access
Peter Vogel, Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink, Andreas Schlueter, and Tilmann Gneiting

1. Introduction Numerical weather prediction (NWP) has steadily improved over the last decades, allowing a multitude of socioeconomic benefits to be realized ( Bauer et al. 2015 ; Alley et al. 2019 ). While progress is unmistakable for 500-hPa geopotential heights and mean sea level pressure in the extratropics, improvements in the predictions of many other parameters are more variable ( Navascués et al. 2013 ). For example, forecasts of European cloud cover have hardly improved over the last

Restricted access
Tobias Kremer, Elmar Schömer, Christian Euler, and Michael Riemer

in a severe precipitation event in Northern Europe. Using ensemble sensitivity analysis, it has been demonstrated that this high-impact event exhibited sensitivity to Karl’s evolution during ET ( Kumpf et al. 2019 ). b. Convection-permitting COSMO simulation The data underlying this study is the same as in Euler et al. (2019) . A convection-permitting simulation of Tropical Storm Karl (2016) has been performed using the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO; Steppeler et al. 2003 ) model

Open access
Andreas Schäfler, George Craig, Heini Wernli, Philippe Arbogast, James D. Doyle, Ron McTaggart-Cowan, John Methven, Gwendal Rivière, Felix Ament, Maxi Boettcher, Martina Bramberger, Quitterie Cazenave, Richard Cotton, Susanne Crewell, Julien Delanoë, Andreas Dörnbrack, André Ehrlich, Florian Ewald, Andreas Fix, Christian M. Grams, Suzanne L. Gray, Hans Grob, Silke Groß, Martin Hagen, Ben Harvey, Lutz Hirsch, Marek Jacob, Tobias Kölling, Heike Konow, Christian Lemmerz, Oliver Lux, Linus Magnusson, Bernhard Mayer, Mario Mech, Richard Moore, Jacques Pelon, Julian Quinting, Stephan Rahm, Markus Rapp, Marc Rautenhaus, Oliver Reitebuch, Carolyn A. Reynolds, Harald Sodemann, Thomas Spengler, Geraint Vaughan, Manfred Wendisch, Martin Wirth, Benjamin Witschas, Kevin Wolf, and Tobias Zinner

variability and Rossby waves. In September and October 2016, the North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment (NAWDEX) made new multiscale observations in the North Atlantic basin from eastern Canada to western Europe. Weather features expected to be associated with forecast errors were extensively probed, providing a high-quality set of observations that are not assimilated routinely and thus can be used for validation of the NWP systems. The fall season was chosen for the experiment because

Open access
Georgios Fragkoulidis and Volkmar Wirth

speed and amplitude in central European temperature extremes. Finally, our results are summarized in section 6 , along with a discussion of their implications and limitations. Computational details and additional analyses that support the interpretation of the presented methods and results are included in the supplemental material (SM). 2. Data In this study we use ERA5 reanalysis data [ Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) 2017 ] for the period from January 1979 to December 2018. In particular

Open access
Michael Maier-Gerber, Michael Riemer, Andreas H. Fink, Peter Knippertz, Enrico Di Muzio, and Ron McTaggart-Cowan

) at the different stages of the process. The aim of this study is to fill this gap by identifying (thermo)dynamic causes for such changes in the predictability of (i) the formation of the pretropical cyclone, (ii) its TT, and (iii) the structural evolution, in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble forecasts of Hurricane Chris (2012) initialized throughout the pre-TT portion of the cyclone’s life cycle. Hurricane Chris was chosen for this multiscale predictability

Open access
Stephan Rasp, Tobias Selz, and George C. Craig

of precipitation is related to WCBs ( Pfahl et al. 2014 ), indicating that convective processes can also represent an important source of upper-level PV modification. Rodwell et al. (2013) suggest that MCSs can significantly degrade medium-range forecasts. In their study, the presence of high values of convective available potential energy (CAPE) over the North American continent was correlated with “forecast busts,” a pronounced decrease in forecast skill downstream over Europe about 6 days

Full access
Gabriel Wolf and Volkmar Wirth

example for the downscale connection between an upper-tropospheric RWP and severe weather is the heavy rain event over central Europe in August 2002 ( Shapiro and Thorpe 2004 ), which led to devastating flooding of the Elbe River ( Ulbrich et al. 2003a , b ). In this case, the associated RWP formed some 10 days before the rain event far upstream over the western Pacific Ocean. Hovmöller diagrams indicate a steady eastward progression of this RWP during its lifetime ( Glatt and Wirth 2014 ). Rossby

Full access