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Wassila M. Thiaw and Vadlamani B. Kumar

increased predictability, but also this is a region where the interannual variability is very strong with alternating floods and drought episodes. The recent availability of hindcasts from the U.S. NMME forecasts has provided an excellent opportunity to compare model performance and to improve forecasts skills in certain regions of the world. The U.S. NMME models in this study include the NCEP CFS versions 1 and 2, the Canadian Climate Model (CCM) versions 1 and 2, the European Centre Hamburg Model

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Rosalind Cornforth, Douglas J. Parker, Mariane Diop-Kane, Andreas H. Fink, Jean-Philippe Lafore, Arlene Laing, Ernest Afiesimama, Jim Caughey, Aida Diongue-Niang, Abdou Kassimou, Peter Lamb, Benjamin Lamptey, Zilore Mumba, Ifeanyi Nnodu, Jerome Omotosho, Steve Palmer, Patrick Parrish, Leon-Guy Razafindrakoto, Wassila Thiaw, Chris Thorncroft, and Adrian Tompkins

interactions, the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA; www.amma-international.org ) ( Redelsperger et al. 2006 ; Polcher et al. 2011 ; Lebel et al. 2011 ) was launched in the spring of 2002 with funding from France (in 2002), the United Kingdom (in 2004), the European Commission (in 2005), and the United States (in 2005). It was the largest program of research into the African environment and climate ever attempted. An overarching goal of the project was to ensure that the multidisciplinary

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Robert A. Clark III, Zachary L. Flamig, Humberto Vergara, Yang Hong, Jonathan J. Gourley, Daniel J. Mandl, Stuart Frye, Matthew Handy, and Maria Patterson

infiltration curve b , another CREST parameter. The two remaining CREST parameters, PET conversion factor and initial value of soil water, are set to uniform values of 1 and 0, respectively. The procedure for determining global values of the kinematic wave parameters continues along similar lines. The α 0 , or overland alpha, parameter is determined from the land-cover/land-use (LULC) data at the European Space Agency’s Climate Change Initiative project (Defourny et al. 2014) and a lookup table in Chow

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Abdou L. Dieng, Saidou M. Sall, Laurence Eymard, Marion Leduc-Leballeur, and Alban Lazar

60% of the Atlantic basin tropical storms and nonmajor hurricanes, and that they account for about 85% of major hurricanes ( Landsea 1993 ). However, the proportion that strengthens to tropical cyclones among those leaving the West Africa coast is quite small [about 6%, see Hopsch et al. (2010) and Arnault and Roux (2011) ]. Based on automatic tracking of vorticity centers in European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses, Thorncroft and Hodges (2001) developed a 20-yr

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Peter J. Lamb, Diane H. Portis, and Abraham Zangvil

Kassianov 2008 ), tropical marine cloud clusters (e.g., Yanai et al. 1973 ; Cheng 1989 ), and vigorous continental mesoscale convective systems (e.g., Cho and Ogura 1974 ; Maddox 1983 ; Schumacher and Johnson 2005 ; Coniglio et al. 2010 ). On greatly extended scales, the roles of these moisture sources have been assessed in the context of atmospheric water budgets for diverse large regions (e.g., Benton et al. 1950 , Mississippi basin; Budyko 1974 , 239–243, European Union of Soviet Socialist

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Lisa Hannak, Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink, Anke Kniffka, and Gregor Pante

short-term forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), this study revealed positive biases in LLJ speed, negative biases in low-level cloud cover, and therefore a large overestimation of solar radiation during the day. The LLJ biases, which should also affect advection and turbulent mixing, are consistent with biases in the north–south pressure gradient due to the misrepresentation of convection in the Sahel ( Marsham et al. 2013 ). For the more recent CMIP5

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Zewdu T. Segele, Michael B. Richman, Lance M. Leslie, and Peter J. Lamb

advection at 100 hPa (Tu100) over southern Europe during March correlated strongly with Kiremt rainfall, with achieved significance levels (ASLs) of ≤1% according to a nonparametric bootstrap test for both the 1970–90 and 1970–99 periods ( Fig. 2 , top). The association between north–south variations in zonal westerlies and warm lower stratospheric midlatitude air is manifested by strong correlations. The correlation magnitude decreased appreciably (from +0.50 to +0.40) at 150 hPa, although similar

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Susan Stillman, Xubin Zeng, and Michael G. Bosilovich

Climate Anomaly Monitoring System CCSM Community Climate System Model CDEC California Data Exchange Center CESM Community Earth System Model CFSR Climate Forecast System Reanalysis CMAP CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation CMIP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project CMORPH CPC morphing technique COOP Cooperative Observer CPC Climate Prediction Center DMSP Defense Meteorological Satellite Program EC Environment Canada ECMWF European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA ECMWF Re-Analysis GFDL

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Rahul S. Todmal

://www.preventionweb.net/files/1869_VL102136.pdf . Strandberg , G. , and Coauthors , 2014 : Regional climate model simulations for Europe at 6 and 0.2 k BP: Sensitivity to changes in anthropogenic deforestation . Climate Past , 10 , 661 – 680 , https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-661-2014 . 10.5194/cp-10-661-2014 TERI , 2012 : Climate change in Maharashtra: A pioneering adaptation strategy. The Energy and Resource Institute, New Delhi, 1 p. TERI , 2014 : Assessing climate change vulnerability and adaptation strategies for

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Kerry H. Cook and Edward K. Vizy

Ethiopia is farther north than in boreal spring, concentrated on the western slopes of the Ethiopian Highlands (see Fig. 2 ). Precipitation over much of Kenya and Tanzania is minimal during these months. The rainfall maximum returns to the equator during the boreal fall season in both the observations ( Fig. 3g ) and the 20C simulation ( Fig. 3h ). A secondary maximum lingers to the north over southern Ethiopia and Somalia. The low-level flow and surface temperature distribution in the European Centre

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